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2123324 2009 年 04 月 19 日 17:28 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (1) Category: Personal Diary
premise : I put the market into two categories, normal and abnormal, that is, many of my analysis is based on normal under. The stock market is that, the economy may also wish so, Track, such as morals, differing only in the form of more intense, more intense conflict more, the stock market just human nature _ is significantly more.
market why short-term, medium and long term than another? First to talk about,
belstaff coat, earnings. Historical experience and external experience tells us that (normal state), the consolidated income rate, as in the short, medium as long. Why must so knowing that we are active in short-term?
One reason, I put the market into normal and abnormal, although the market most of the time in the normal range, but the real profits are burned and a large range in the very state. Huge fluctuations in the short term is a very state, human greed will make us face when participating in many of these high-risk striving hard, but the results tell us that a down market CBBC cycle only 10% less than the men in this state Under the profit. Many times we put this understanding as a time cost, but relative, and the rate of return than the cost of most of the time does not exist this time.
Second reason, risk control psychology. Comprehensive look at the short-term risk from <middle <long, it is because the time factor and systemic risk factors. Or from the other side say, in the short-term initiative significantly higher than their long-term, large environmental factors, stock fundamentals in the short term will affect our operations. The long-term are often passive acceptance of this information. People like to put the initiative into their own hands (or that have mastered their own initiative), so that more people are like in the short-term operation. Sometimes or most of the time we avoid the risk of psychological time is the biggest risk. As the risk, let your profits run, the imagination is good, the reality is cruel. Many people are chasing short-term risk-free arbitrage, may have such a short period the situation, but long term it is not possible, another way of such a risk-free arbitrage difficult to find, even if there appears a very low chance of , which is of an extraordinary state, when the market changes, the continuation of the original risk-free arbitrage approach will bring a huge risk.
said that, since we clearly know better than the short, medium and longer than that we do not like to do long-term, to give up short-term line?
one, this is not realistic for the market,
belstaff sale, continue to have new people come in, history will repeat, but as a human in this market for the long term, the objectivity of human greed inevitably will happen . (Normal)
Second, our current market environment should be improved, that the market value of long-term investment is also small, the risk is relatively large. The main consideration is the long-term investment dividends of factors, not the principal, of course, the ideal is the principal value, another dividend was. If the long-term investment rate of return can reach several times, then the market will have long-term investment value. So I think the current market and the real ability to do long-term money (put a few years,
belstaff jackets outlet, decades), there are two kinds of people, first, know nothing about this market, and second,
belstaff outlet, to really understand the market (or real understanding of a business and prospects.) So I do not think the market has a master and a low hand of the points, and only the profit and loss of points.
in the short-term difficult to make money, not long-term good to do, how we do. From the probability point of view, of course, do not do. Hey, so I never persuade people to enter this market,
belstaff online, and even people away from the market. Not previously have a saying, If you love someone let him into the stock market it, if you hate a person allowing him to enter the stock market it. But for those of us who have entered this market, the withdrawal is really too difficult, the market experienced a lot of people will say after, I was born for this market, I am most suited to this industry, including myself, have so stubborn that. Then how do we do? Personal sentiment,
belstaff jacket, still continue to improve in the
a short-term is not impossible to do it but to do as little as possible to maximize their winning percentage, control risk, where the need to emphasize the importance of technical analysis and Taishiyanpan's important. Do short-term time to grasp.
Second, the attitude must be adjusted, there is no good and correct state of mind or as far away from the stock market. Also since we consider long-term survival in the market, then at least to be on the market than most people keen. If you find yourself not suitable for this market, it's best to get out as soon as possible. Try to avoid infinite loop.
three discipline. Short-term operation of the risk we all know, the discipline must be strict. Best to have a set of simple short-term trading system.
four, personally think that the best time to do a relatively high short-term oscillations City and oversold. Do short-term should be recognized that the top and bottom are not important, the most important is the probability and risk.
Fifth, we should recognize that short-term operations in order to better understand the market, it is saying close contact. Go in order to better come out. I think we all feel the draining every day, study hard, but also very fun. But if we can do every day, Happy day, the stock can maintain a certain income level, who do not want so tired. I hope we have this day.
life vision to see farther, look things look closer. Similarly, the stock market.
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