The Washington Post is reporting that Pakistani experts believe Hakimullah Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban was probably slew in a drone strike–and that his death would be a “fatal blow” to the Taliban, coming so presently after the death of his predecessor, Baitullah Mehsud, also in a drone attack.
To which I caution: Not so fast. First, we don’t know whether the companion is dead. Second, if he is, it’s completely feasible that the Pakistani Taliban will find another leader quickly–Hakimullah had championship because the job; there are aspirants waiting in the wings. Third, even now there is an extended power struggle and the movement has been seriously weakened by a fusion of drone strikes and Pakistani Army operations in South Waziristan, that doesn’t mean an end to Taliban terror bombards. They will persist. The best circumstance scenario is that the potentiality of the Taliban actually launching a broad-based popular action to overturn the government–perhaps with the aid of some units of the Army–has been squelched.
This heaves a larger point: our gullibility when it comes to newspaper from the region. We–on all sides of this question–tend to location extra credence in news we like than news we don’t like. A few months antecedent, case in point, the Jordanians spun a tale–reported here in Time–that their double agent who bombarded the CIA station in Khost had turned because he was upset almost U.S. plan in the middle eastern. Maybe. Or maybe the Jordanians were just trying to deviate consideration from the fact namely they fatally misread their double-agent. The point is, there were those, particularly in the left blogosphere,
Rosetta Stone version 3, who took the Jordanian whirl for gospel because it strengthened their view–a legitimate outlook, at the way–that our presence in the district namely only causing more difficulty. (Neoconservatives have been spun, similarly, by reports of counter-insurgency “progress” in Helmand Province, which are very dubious because of the lack of Afghan participation in the reclaiming of neighborhoods.)
So, I hope Hakimullah Mehsud’s necrosis presages the end of the Taliban threat in Pakistan. But I too hope the Pakistani Army continues its war against the terrorists and extends it, by going later those like the Afghan Taliban chairman Mullah Omar, whom the Pakistanis supported in the elapse.
It is entirely possible that this whole anecdote is an venture by the Pakistanis to resist U.S. pressure to push the anti-Taliban fight from South Waziristan,
ghd Hair Straighteners, family of the Mehsuds, to North Waziristan, family of the Haqqanis (who, in the past, have been agents of the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate–the ISI).
Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani, Pakistan’s army capital, told a group of exotic reporters Monday that with 147,000 crews deployed near the Afghan boundary to fight Pakistani militants, and 100,000 stationed onward Pakistan’s Asian siteline with rival India,
Rosetta Stone mac, “almost the whole army is contained in operations. We absence to train and recess.”
All of which is to say: If there is everything we know about news from the region, it’s that we don’t know very many. My policy is, take naught by face value. I’m skeptical about all these reports, which is why I try to visit the campaign areas as often as I can. I try to base my decrees of progress alternatively regress above hard certify (like the decline in raging episodes that heralded the turn opposition Al Qaeda in Iraq’s Anbar Province in the spring of 2007) that is backed by a plausible rationale (the local tribes determined they didn’t like AQI’s mark of sharia). On the flip side,
monster beats by dre, it was very cozy to see, when I visited Afghanistan in late 2008 and spring of 2009, that the war was no going very well there.
But the maximum momentous caveat is recommended by a quote from the naval leader:
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