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2126422 2009 年 10 月 14 日 13:23 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: Zhuanzhai
Money Of course, many who have a decisive lead on the strength of house prices, but who must not be allowed to have more money to push up prices. The fact that housing prices does not mean that it must be reasonable. Is reasonable should be on most people, the average level of social standing on the point of view.
□ Bank of International Yang Qing (Yang Qingbo passengers, Yang Qing news, Yang Qing say) Korea
most people will think: money will buy a house, the house will appreciate. Said the long term trend prices will not drop back to only a small rally, said that housing investment is a good financial management tools, then price in the end is what?
First of all, from the producers point of view, housing prices should bottom line is making the cost of housing. Profits should be higher than the cost to the average level of society, and if much higher, only shows that less government control of land result in supply, leading developer of high profit margins. In fact, China's per capita living space has its own statistics is growing, and accompanied by a growing population size. When the building became an important physical form to solve the housing, the land has been the number of homes does not constitute a constraint, of course, provided that the per capita housing area is not unlimited expansion. More local governments can not increase the supply of land causes, factors 高价房 against the owner, but also for enterprises around the dislocation of government functions to the factors making money from land sales.
Second, from a consumer point of view,
belstaff uk, the \The value of the stock based on discounted future cash flows. Investors in the stock market is very bold, dare to assess the uncertain future value of the stock of cash flow in modern society, most people in the form of a loan to buy a house, so house prices should also be discounted by residents to determine future income . Our requirements: current residents also mortgage expenses to a maximum of half of their income, other countries have less than this limit. Suppose income during working life, set the average annual income growth rate and discount rate mortgages can be drawn for the future the present value of cash flow expenditures, divided by the expected housing area, the people can come to buy house price. According to this formula, one can clearly see that price growth will be accompanied by income growth, the stock price is accompanied by the growth of corporate performance increase it? Even if there is crisis and the downturn, but the overall long-term gradual increase in national income and economic trends in the long-term trend of gradual growth seems to be an axiom now, therefore, long-term growth and stock price index of the long-term growth also appears to be a justice. Even so, how bold the stock market to discount the future the number of investors to invest in fixed capital each year to enjoy long-term growth index fund results? Although the long term index is rising, but in the short term there is always a variety of risks.
same time, the discounted future cash flow theory, the home and equity prices, as are the value of a point in time, the present discounted value is the current fair value of a house or stock, if the mood of the masses optimistic, often ahead of schedule the fair value of the future point in time. Too much future value will mean that the overdraft the coming crash! As the housing market and the stock market.
fact, this theory and we usually refer to price earnings ratio is highly consistent. Prices reasonable proportion of income set at 3-6 times the working life of all amendments to the loan discount expenditures, taking into account all the working years is too long, risk factors are more price earnings ratio of this method reduces the discount life.
producers and consumers in the above pricing theory core,
belstaff sale, the fair value of the above factors one by one interfere with recovery, theoretical core will be covered tightly, the truth becomes impossible to understand. Any deviation from the theoretical core of the approach could lead to skyrocketing housing prices. For example, the disclosure of false income mortgage to income ratio distortion and reasonable growth in demand quickly led to a lot of people paid a high probability of future unemployment mortgage on favorable terms made him the U.S. mortgage bubble and the economic crisis, only a few housing quality and supply can still reduce the upward trend in house prices will increase.
Well, according to the proposed formula, China's current price should be what a reasonable level? We are well aware of the cost, the proportion of the total price is not high, no longer display and calculate. The key can be used for mortgage payment in the future cash flows discounted value in the end how much? First, the income level to bring it to calculate the average level of society. Some people always say the rich more than the average level can not count, we must not count how high prices can support a small number of rich people because rich people can support \Calculated according to average income level of prices reflects a reasonable economic well-being for the majority of ethical orientation. Stand on our own point of view real estate developer, said building houses for the rich is wrong, but this is not objective and neutral in the price of.
to the top level of the country for average wage in Beijing was 46,507 yuan in 2007, assuming that working parents, 10% revenue growth in future years, the tax rate of 20%, discount rate of 5%, the maximum is also room credit expenses to income ratio is 50% discount,
belstaff outlet, now number 35 from 25 to 60 years, then doing we can buy the value of the current 339 million. If it is 100 square meters, is priced at 33,900 yuan. This is based on very optimistic assumptions of the estimates. Faces many significant risks such as unemployment, income growth lower than expected mortgage interest rates, home of major changes, the repayment period is too long and so, in reality, not in this to determine the purchase price, calculated as a reference only. 1978-2007 29-year compound growth rate of the national average wage was 13.6%, considering the high growth period is over, if future revenue growth of 8% as the repayment period be shortened to 20 years if the current buy 100 square meters, can only withstand 10,500 yuan in the unit price, price earnings ratio is still as high as 14, indicating that the price is still too optimistic. Only when the repayment period to 10 years,
belstaff leather, the price earnings ratio was reduced to 6, then affordable price of only 4,730 yuan (100 square meters if you buy it). Fortunately, by the year 2000 after the housing reform, housing distribution unit into a free offer of compensation by the privatization of the housing units,
belstaff coat, when the price of low compensation, the Beijing price at the time there are about 4,000 yuan, if the annual income growth of 13% per Year value-added rate, the current unit value is 7,370 yuan, so the owner of the house a large number of stocks do not have to look 高价房 and disappointed, but the general income level of new home buyers will have to face the problem of high prices. According to the latest statistics from Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, August, 10 investigation of second-hand residential real estate transactions an average price of 10,199 yuan / square meter, Xicheng District, the highest, 17,295 yuan / square meter. 1-8 month within the fourth ring road of commercial housing price is 18,113 yuan / square meter, the Sixth Ring Road outside the 7847 yuan RMB / square meter. It appears that lower-income suburbs to buy a house only to go out.
city center there are accounts of a high price controls coupled with the political, educational, cultural, welfare and other resources are concentrated in large cities and other factors, the largest city in the pie-style development ideas, the city growing, in terms of secondary school textbooks 20 years ago the idea of satellite towns has also seen a shadow children, who more and more funds or money transfer to the big city. This can only live in lower-income areas more distant, centralized government can not change the political educational and cultural resources, only to speed up the construction of long-distance high-speed means of transport to meet the housing needs. Can imagine, with the high-speed railway construction, living to work in central Beijing in Hebei, high prices may be the choice of many people.
the highest income levels in Beijing's financial industry wages 129,982 yuan in 2007, is 2.79 times the average level in Beijing. If the price of ordinary workers can withstand 4,730 yuan and 1.05 yuan, then the employee can withstand the financial sector is priced at 13,220 yuan and 2.93 yuan. If the financial industry, affordable housing for the workers downtown prices, the current housing within the Second Ring of Beijing center is close to or more than 29,300 yuan. In fact, most employees in the financial industry did not think the current price is easily manageable.
high-income country in Beijing and other cities buy luxury cluster, resulting in extraordinarily high prices, only Beijing polarized reflection, the Government must do something, or to increase or strictly control land supply to investment property on credit. If everyone invested money left that house prices always rise, do not lose any time to buy, and I try to buy into a house, that have to advance the future, instead of the real estate appreciation real estate investment for rental purposes , then it will lead to terrible irresistible price gains. Different and the stock market, stock liquidity is good, short-mechanism, the real estate affected by emotional impact, poor mobility, once the group in one direction, irrational attack them, or may be greater, the time may be longer sustainable. At this time, buy a house and commodity speculation or gambling seems little difference, and not as a bargaining chip is more than anyone else share? Later, those who want to pay the bill? Commodity prices can be up there but they are falling. In fact, in the process of asset bubbles, all kinds of speculators (not the rental rate of return to post for the only purpose of those buyers) tend to use the credit leverage, the credit control within the object in compliance is a matter of macro- the overall situation, but unfortunately they often in the pursuit of business and financial institutions under the pressure of profit growth out of control.
so on, various manufacturers, various service providers did not need to continue to manufacture products and provide services to earn profits, and have to bid for land and housing, the hoarding to be up, annual cash some profit can be. That time the real estate and related industries will bring 100% of the contribution to GDP, house prices can not fall out even more!
more money of course, housing prices were the guiding force decisive, but must not allow more money by pushing up prices. The fact that housing prices does not mean that it must be justified. Is reasonable should be on most people, the average level of social standing on the point of view.
excessive investment in real estate act itself will self-created \Everything can not be over, if a few people occupy too much real estate, housing prices and high, increasing polarization between rich and poor, the Government will worry about the outbreak of social conflicts, forced to limit the family living area, on the large area occupied by punitive taxation. Even in the last resort, the Government may enable the administrative control of land and housing, for each unit before opening the business plan for the land means the land (if the unit employee benefits and housing enterprises do not seek high profit margins, prices will not rise to a very unreasonable level, but also may provide the highest household size). It is like the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, to discuss the control executive pay, the market economy should be respected, but played the fire, the government will have to use the plan approach remediation market.
in the current policy has not fundamentally reversed the case, perhaps irrational madness will continue, but the prices are a reasonable basis, deviation will be punished too. Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, United States, there is precedent. So that prices remain within reasonable levels, the Government is primarily responsible for real estate developers, individuals only in the government after the establishment of appropriate real estate policies in order to establish their own proper responsibility, the order can not be reversed.
Government strongly stimulated the economy has been restored, but the money supply too much, money does not rule out running after the result of excessive prices double inflation in asset prices, interest rates must be followed, and ultimately cause prices to plunge continuous rise in prices in nearly 10 years, may usher in a really big adjustment.
mood for stock in the wild will be pushed away from the point of reasonable valuation, and even there there is a reasonable clamor, and,
belstaff online, certainly there will be new to be invented and valuation methods spread, will have a market value not found the crazy argument, sooner or later fall on their own. On the stock, the high price-earnings ratio is the stock price high-voltage lines. In fact, the same price, price earnings ratio is the basis of their value judgments, too much deviation, and finally to come back.
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