Baseball Prospectus | Painting the Black: Home-Field Disadvantage?

August 17, 2011 Painting the Black Home-Field Disadvantage? by R.J. Anderson With the regular season six weeks from completion, the Yankees and Red Sox are already assured of October play, but that won&rsquo;t prevent the two AL East titans from making headlines a few more times down the stretch. But Selig can talk about parity and competitive balance until he&rsquo;s blue in the face, but regardless of how often new contenders arise <a href="www.bestnikeshoesforstore.com"><strong>nike shoes outlet</strong></a> in other divisions, these two teams print money, and the potential for an American League Championship Series between Boston and New York will always have many salivating. Although both teams will make the playoffs, only one can win the division, and if 2010 is any indication, this race might last until the final weekend of the season. Last year, the Yankees entered September with a one-game lead over the Rays and 29 games to play. By the time the season ended, the Yankees had posted the worst September/October winning percentage in the division (at .433) while the Rays had limped their way (.500) to their second division crown in three years. (You may have remembered this, but Buck Showalter&rsquo;s Orioles won 56.7 percent percent of those games.) The division crown was not awarded until the final afternoon of the season, when the Yankees lost (although the Rays would wind up winning their game in extra innings). The seemingly inevitable Tampa Bay-New York ALCS never materialized because the Rangers had other plans, but if it had&mdash;and if Boston and New York can reach the second round this season&mdash;then odds are that the home-field advantage won by the Rays would have become a talking point, particularly if the teams went to seven games and the Rays wound up winning. In that case, every pundit in sight would have asserted that the Yankees should have tried harder to win the division. Prospectus alum Joe Sheehan took a look at home field advantage in the postseason last season and surmised: The baseball postseason is merely a highly entertaining <a href="www.bestnikeshoesforstore.com"><strong>cheap nike shoes </strong></a> roll of the dice. Being the best team over 162 games makes you just 8 percent more likely than the other guys are to get through to the World Series. Having home-field edge doesn't confer much advantage. Even if a series comes down to one game, where that game is played doesn't seem to matter. This is why two teams in the same division who have already locked up postseason berths do not go all out for the higher seed in the waning days of the season, preferring to ensure that their players are healthy, rested and ready to go when the postseason begins. For many of those same reasons, Jay Jaffe arrived at the conclusion that the performance of a team over its final few weeks <a href="www.bestnikeshoesforstore.com"><strong>nike shoes sale</strong></a> doesn&rsquo;t make much difference in the postseason, so don&rsquo;t read too much into it if Boston or New York stumbles into October. Here is a fun thought, though: What if the loser of the division could stand to benefit from home-field advantage more? The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.Not a subscriber? Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web. Cancel anytime. That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.