Introduction: As long as the Communist government will continue to power, the other seethe boil will be the final.
abyss footsteps
- anxious approximately China's peril and crisis
when the ice
stock concordance futures, margin trading the news, we are more cared about, is it China's capital market. This efficacy is inevitable, it will change the trends, the appropriate investment tactics and thinking usages need to be adapted. However, this is not the most important publish. If you stand in the global outlooks, from the carbon economy to a stock index futures, in the arranging of a road - a path towards crisis.
for Japan's rapid rise and decline of mystery, I am
rising hasty in Japan was the fear that the United States, why the secret decline? This is how many mysteries hidden inside? Japan's happened? The United States do? Can not see them in the sanguinary game, hit Japan's 7 inches by the United States, and the dare from the host back into amenable slaves ... ...
I have been reading about in books, particularly foreign scholar's go, trying to find one answer.
answers to these questions, there are many researchers to the nation ahead, but these studies preconceived political discrimination and other constraints, making it learned worth greatly depressed. I wish to ascertain the cardinal interests of the game. Shift from the dark in those glorious days in Japan, in the end what occurred?
I use the combined reading (discern the
In the process of discovery answers, I often feel the word: fear.
the Japanese advantage, China has no.
the soft underbelly of the Japanese, the Chinese even more.
the cunning of the Japanese, not Chinese.
such as technology, education, social security, and rich people line ... ... and so on, are far less than China and Japan. In foreign affairs, Japan's Carbon economy in the negotiations, the Chinese without the commitment of Western capital and technical favour in the case, take the initiative to take duty, first in Japan is definitely not based solely on the interests of Japanese a standing ovation live to others to do the face, while he was affordable.
However, China is Japan namely year forward the path, elected up the pace. Not only faced the background, even countermeasures, also repeated Japan's mistakes, and namely fewer and fewer opportunities to adjustment ... ... constantly think of this, the anguished.
error correction and Japanese sense of national skirmish is very mighty. Even in the United States with weapons and money played Diukuiqijia days, Japan was still many years to retain the patent technology has made the world, the world's first civil technological research and R & D investment; Japanese investment in schooling has maintained in the GDP 4.7% (China's actual public investment in education accounted for 2.4% of GDP, equivalent to only Japan and the United States, half); Japanese nationals alive criteria did not significantly change ... ...
This is a can bite the bullet and slowly correction, the rise of national standby.
for Japan's lost decade, academics have many explanations, including the outstanding doctrine of the balance sheet recession, are also acknowledged. In fact, China's decision-making is also affected, began to take countermeasures in order to avoid repeating the mistakes of Japan - analysis by the interests of shoving down, I'm sure is the case, at least, the logic of the two lines are very compatible.
However, this may be misleading to a terrible abyss.
I long antecedent a small scope of the depth of his speech, talked about my worries.
balance sheet meaning of a recession: while a national asset price bubble burst, a great digit of private sector (corporate and family) balance sheet, resulting in a position of insolvency, the private sector economic activity from the pursuit of profit maximization into a minimization of debt, which contain large-scale economic activities, accordingly resulting in continued decline, known as the balance sheet recession.
特征:
(1) enterprises will most of the revenues accustom for debt, and not for re-investment, with declining demand for bank loans, investments; household Most of their income for debt,
PULSERA BLANCE CON ESPANA, while reducing consumption, consumer credit declined sharply.
(2) As affairs and households to repay the goal of capital inflow and outflow of a small bank, a credit wheel abuse occurs, even now lower interest rates, affairs and households do not lend power.
(3) in enterprises and households to balance reduced to a tolerable level before the economy can not regain on their own growth.
solve the balance sheet the only way out is government spending. If you adopt this theory,
PULSERA BLANCA CON ARGENTINA, China's altitude, it means,
China will in order to dodge repeating Japan's blunders,
Balance arriesgado, in mandate to lest falling into the poise canvas recession, continue to reinforce the government's fiscal centralization (because significant impose benefits out of the desire of the urgency of funding is the most typical instance), increased administration spending, which will further worsen China's economy. Because China namely facing a recession in developed countries there's balance page recession namely essentially another.
First, the state-owned enterprises as the main coerce, because they are not worried about debt, borrowing power is always strong, not the debt as a target, but investment in re-investment - just the opposite with Japan.
Secondly, the Government via increased tax revenue, etc. to heave funds, far more effective in private hands, paired with corruption, big losses and other factors, will lead to prodigal misuse of funds,
PULSERA TRANSPARENTE VENEZUELA, finally leading to a large number of wrong debts, triggered the fiscal crisis.
Third, human are needy and the lack of social security, which means its aptitude to hedge is very weak.
Conclusion:
If the error learn the lessons of Japan, could lead China into a financial crisis triggered by bad debts, balance sheet rather than a Japanese-style recession.
present, Chinese scholars impetuous air of dishonesty, mostly those in power, personal acquisition as a starting point, the learn of the problem is often superficial, in fact, either Japan's lost decade, the United States sub- credit crisis, or facing China in the future as the starting point of the real estate breakdown of a important crisis, there are two gist of the most critical factors: inadequate consumption; decision-making mistakes.
Japan's soaring house prices, stock markets soaring, leading to a lot of money was taken out from the real economy, the flow of the virtual economy, and the bubble burst, making hundreds of millions of wealth evaporated. Following this, the purchasing power of the Great Depression is inevitable. Japan's bubble burst, the average household spending down for many years, lost 10 years, in adding to a rebound in 1999, has still declined in 2001. Lost decade, client recession is just 10 years!
we see at the United States. Increase in housing costs occasioned at wealth effects, yet too attracted a lot of money into, yet these asset from approximately the earth preferably than the United States. However, with the bubble explosion, U.S. expense decline,
PULSERA NEGRA CON BANDERA, economy crisis followed.
Obviously, not enough consumption is the most fundamental factor. If you do not raise spending, impossible out of the crisis.
frightening is that China's bubble is far greater than when the United States and Japan.
U.S. family prices from 1996 to 2006, a total of up to 80%.
look at Japan. In the most serious time of Japan's bubble, that from 1986 to 1990, the average national commercial land prices rose 67.4% additive, average price of residential land in Japan is 60% of the total increase, or the highest Tokyo doubled. When you see these mathematics, I very much doubt, because China's land prices rose this year to reach the speed! Er in the verification, I can not shocked to find that the worst of Japan's bubble time, the premium increase is far fewer than China's current!
is such a level, but also protection policy in Japan continues to play a role in the case, the bubble burst and fast accumulation, and China, in undefended cases, how should the bubble accumulation the risk? 2001 to 2003, the Chinese local governments in three years, land transfer revenues measured to 910 billion yuan, a year in 2009, China's aggregate land revenue had reached 1.5 trillion yuan!
I was startled to find that China in many ways, even minor details, are walking along the line of the year in Japan.
year in Japan,
PULSERA BLANCA CON NETHERLANDS, the implementation of the expansionary fiscal policy, but not a lot of capital flows to the real economy.
Now in China, but also the expansion of fiscal policy, a lot of money does not flow to the real economy. January to September 2009, the all Chinese society deposits increased 11.75 trillion yuan, while corporate deposits increased to reach 5.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 47.6%. This means that a large number of bank credit borrowing creations did not form the real purchasing power.
quandary of private capital is more worrying.
current mall way situation in the whole society more than 80 industries, allowing state-owned capital to enter the 72 category, to allow foreign investment of 62 species, while allowing private capital to enter only 41 species. Moreover, the private economy is restricted and it is precisely the field of high rates of return!
everywhere like with Japan's own private capital, in compare, the Chinese choose the best opportunities for foreign investors are not private companies. For example, some cities to attract foreign investment, zero premium to foreign investors, accounting for as high as 80% of industrial land in these cities will be hard to raise the price of residential land to residential land accounted for 20% of the price to make up 80% of the loss of industrial land ! This is also the China one of the root causes of rising house prices!
this by the expense of public well-being of the cost of one path to fascinate alien investment, and the traitorous Yi? !
Why China 4 trillion rescue plan has been implemented, calls for unprecedented low-carbon economy? - The answer is: China has not way out of adjustment, and they have seen this, Western China, different strangling conditions have been met.
Why China strongly encourage the development of the cars, the United States on one side to develop bio-fuel, while shutting down SUV transferred overseas? - The answer is: reduce dependence on oil, the oil in the future to arrange for warfare. This is a strangulation of China's conditions.
... ...
Yes, just like playing chess, step by tread in moving amenable. Then Japan, at least, still know where the afterward step, the next step should be to go? We, in the inexplicable complacency in a period to lose. Way back in 2009, steel ore price negotiations in the most fussy moment, a sudden introduction of Chinese iron and steel, automobile recovery blueprinting, making the difficult negotiating partners swiftly chance an unprecedented, momentary loss of bargaining chips in China, the resulting loss of Why the introduction of the policy incongruous about it? I am a long time tin not bring ... to an end from this pain: Why ranging from contract negotiations after the presentation of the revitalization planning? In that case, China will be how to get the interest of ah!
2008 June, ranked in multinational fuel prices near $ 140, I accept the CCTV Eastern time reporters, made it explicit that the future price of oil will fall beneath 50 greenbacks. March 2009, I started to see high oil prices, and repeatedly accentuated that cheap oil prices over 30 U.S. greenbacks, more than $ 40 oil prices will not see it! Oil prices will soon destroy through the $ 70 and reach 70-80 U.S. dollars line (a line of oil each reach, means that targeted changes in this, I have simply mentioned in the writing). In early November 2009, speech in Fuzhou, I once afresh accented that the multinational oil prices in 2010 surpassed $ 100, if a drought or torrents in China, international oil prices will quickly damage through $ 120.
Yes, this is a trail, is a simulation game of chess, this game of chess is a step by step underground, and our step by step to no return. Money to provide in the huge market, amassed huge firewood, put blaze to the U.S. only, while the financial history of war that the United States has always been athletes in this area. Queen
many Chinese experts trust that China's supply of ample, inflation can not happen, some experts told me in the Chapter That China is only inflation expectations, and no inflation.
This is a very disgraceful self-deluding.
query, do not call prices rose 40 percent inflation? CPI does not reflect the rise in house prices does not mean that inflation did not happen, this expert was also ignorant plucked his jeans, because they put his brain buried in the soil, alternatively, such as Liu Ling, as the house has room for accidental jeans. [Note 1]
fact, the most frightening is not a uncomplicated problem of inflation.
the most scary, is precisely the complacency of some of those specialists - China's huge investment in the hereafter is to supply, in the absence of a suitable supply of purchasing power ought be the circumstance, it will turned into a extra of [China's present steel industry surplus making capability reached 200 million tons; concrete product capability of 18.7 million tons, far more than the tangible demand, currently beneath construction in the 400 production line will multiplication production capacity of 600 million tons ; excess of 6 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, there are two million tons below construction ... ... as the first 15 min of 2009, in 24 industries, 19 industries there are different levels of excess capacity]. This would lead to an inflation in the orthodox sense than the more tough economic manner, but also my previous blog post on has been apparently predicted: the one hand, rising commodity prices, production costs, the other hand, increased supply , excess capacity, commodity prices do not boost, the formation of imported inflation and deflation among the coexistence of economic structure. This new economy will be painful for China in the hereafter.
exposed the soft underbelly of China, eyeful are entire, like a mast of the sheep. United States and other developed countries, if you ambition to plunder, randomly chose targets can be awarding.
nation's pain, than this!
Hopefully, China's decision-making is knowing also much, I Yu Lou, difficult to understand the magnificent wisdom of those purposes.
Hopefully, the United States and other adult countries are not so smart and I presume ferocious.
Caomin panic, Caomin's wail, maybe, it is just a silly joke.
aboard January 11, 2010
[note 1] Yin Wine Xingnong, often undressed at home Happened to be a guest hit, they teased him a few guests. Liu Ling said:
Footsteps into the abyss
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