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ability to reverse the Government has not the market trend. However, the
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renewed China's stock market and real estate market bubble, which is deserving to massive bank loans to motivate, attach with the general terror of inflation caused. I think the Chinese stock market and real estate market is overvalued by 50% alternatively even 100%. These two markets are probable to adapt in the fourth 15 min. -
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However, some time next year, the two market bubble may jump out at again. U.S. dollar reinforced again the day is beautiful when the bubble burst. Serious inflation will force the Fed to raise amuse rates, the bubble may be crushed catalyst. -
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China's asset markets has become a mammoth As more and more sucked into the market and liquidity, are further driving up prices, people proceed to verify the bullish expectations. Thus, there are more people to enjoy this. However, there is not enough liquidity to fared it the 1st Now, do not constitute a liquidity constraint. Although the premier half of the new loans approached 7.4 trillion yuan, but in June was merely 66.6% loan-deposit ratio (likened to December last year, 65%), an increase mini. This means that many loans did not enter the real economy, but became a leveraged asset market transactions. Chinese real estate market situation in Hong Kong in 1997 are very alike. -
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bubble with the U.S. and downs -
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China
excess liquidity from the asset bubble, showing a high level of foreign reserves and low loan-deposit ratio. The weak dollar and strong exports, resulting in the situation of excess liquidity in China. -
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Although China is experiencing weak exports of torment,
Womens Lacoste Observe Trainers, but the weak dollar to China to vigorously release its collection in the past 5 years, liquidity, and not anxiety about the hazard of money devaluation. -
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fact, predict when the bubble burst is not complicated. When the dollar became strong again, the liquidity bubble will destroy heavily. -
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, however, is difficult to mention when it will be a stronger U.S. dollar. 1985 Then, 7 years is bull. The current dollar bear market began in 2002, and since then, the dollar index (DXY) has reduced the value of about 35%. If the last round of a bear market as a benchmark, the current bear market could last until 2012. IT revolution, on the one U.S. dollar bull market turned, you not know will not have another technological revolution, to lead the U.S. into a sustainable bull market. -
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, of course, financial policy can contribute to a short but hot dollar ox market. The early 80s of last century, when the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, with double-digit rate hike to control inflation. Since then, the dollar is very difficult process. The present situation is similar. Basis of this development, nearly certainly, the Chinese capital market and economy would be -
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foam to nourish long, relying on the liquidity of government policy. The current bubble, driven largely by the Government to encourage banks to inter-bank loans and absent fromterest rates caused. Zero interest rate policy by the Fed, coupled with the weak dollar, high levels of China's foreign exchange reserves, low loan-deposit ratio and, therefore, resulting in increased liquidity, will further amplify the bubble. However, taking into list other factors, could remind the government to cool the overheated sentiments. -
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establish liquidity if the government do its utmost, then, when the bubble burst, even to retention the If then the global economy has retrieved, the Chinese economy with strong exports may be a Conversely, if the global economy was still weak, according to my private point of view, the stock market, real estate market and the economy will arise -
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false
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The government first set off a liquidity When the liquid is entirely absorbed, the market will lose momentum. Once the market fell to a definite amplitude, the Government could lead to another wave of This approach can not only save the I think the Government might use this strategy. If within the next few years will continue to decline in the global economy, perhaps we can see that China's stock and real estate market to such a large daily fluctuations. Front, which shares the fluctuation may occur down in the -
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Many people think that China does not bubble. High asset prices simply reflect the potential for high growth in China. No one can say for sure that this is a real asset in the end the prosperity, or just foam. -
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I view the status of China's chief market is very clear: there is a lot of bubbles. The bubble will burst very wrong throughout the nation the consequences. However, many people are enjoying them, the Government will not pre-emptive buffet to eradicate bubbles. In truth, the policy decision-making, many people believe that the bubble is favorable to economic retrieval. When the weak U.S. dollar, this argument sounds rational,
Womens Lacoste Arin Trainers, because when the bubble tin chilly the economy and bring more liquidity. When the greenback revitalization, China's capital market, perhaps the plenary economy will be a I wish that those who strongly advocated the bubble, could bring an end to ..., take duty because the losses. -
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of the most basic usage is to see at the bubble appraisal. Assessment rates, the most major is to weigh the price income ratio and rental income. Currently, extensive, house prices per square meter is already quite near to the U.S. mean. The U.S. per capita income is 7 times the per capita income of the city. China's housing price per square meter, the equivalent of wage income is generally 3 months, this level is perhaps the highest in the globe. -
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far as I know, immediately, not many houses are rented out. Average rental proceeds, if you calculate those who do not rent out the house, then really low and pitiful. In terms of purchasing power of the people, or the expected rental proceeds, China's housing prices are abnormally high. Some people believe that China's real estate has always been true: housing prices higher and higher. This is not right. -
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Chinese real estate market bubble
there is another side, that is, regional government finance in its character. Land sales revenue and attribute sales revenue is generated, accounting for a colossal piece of regional government revenue, so they have a strong incentive to stimulate the real estate market. Land sales are often charted to rekindle the prices expected. For example, those who bid high prices of land, will be phoned Recently, the When the state-owned companies to lend money to state-owned banks, and through the land auction to return the money the local government, prices have averaging? Only asset in the government's If personal developers trying to chase the land market to emulate the state-owned companies, is tantamount to suicide. -
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the stock market never
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stock market is in the final madness. Ignorant retail investors are attracted along the rising trend. They nightmare again rich overnight. As in the past, retail investors constantly lose money, particularly now thatthose who have fair jumped into the stock market. Finally, the mania often do not final long. In China, the stock market cornering points are often related with the political almanac. Retail investors generally believe that the government will not let the stock market in the Republic ahead the 60th anniversary of the fall. The short term, this belief will be self-fulfilling. From historical experience, this wag of mushroom in the -
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In the Greenspan era, the monetary markets believe that he all shot in periods of crisis But in real life,
Lacoste Radiate Croc Trainers, a reversal in the trend, the Government has no ability to reverse the market trend. In the elapse, China's stock market volatility, recommending namely the government feeble to stop the market decline. However, this fiction is still deeply rooted in the belief that investors in idea. -
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some government think tank, believes that the disadvantageous effects of the bubble may not be so magnificent. A renowned methodology is that the bubble up, the money from one pocket into another pocket, at all times disbursing the money streams in China, it will not produce any long-term impair. So people ought look at Japan and Hong Kong to see how the bubble does not exit caused colossal damage. -
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the bubble beneath the resource is accustom to generate more bubble. These resources will be permanently wasted. For sample, the trader no longer willing to converge on the real economy, instead provide time and vigor to agree in market assumption. This method that the hereafter of China, will not have a globally competitive company. Although China has experienced 30 years of high growth, but few companies with universal competitiveness. A catena of bubbles may be the chief cause of this situation. -
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the younger generations, little taste of real work,
Lacoste Swerve Keyline Trainers, instead indulging in stock market speculation. Relative to every month at a nailed salary, they are more willing to see their stock prices held among a day come and go, and then began to hallucinate that they can earn big money in the stock market there. Of course, most of them may have naught to lose,
Lacoste Trainers 2011, then, might make some radical moves. So the social consequences could be very serious. -
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housing mirage -
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real estate bubble often lead to economic overheating. Building vacant, characterizing a permanent loss. In China, most people may laugh at this potentiality. After all, the housing absences of 1.3 billion people is almost unlimited. However, the reality is not favor that. China's urban dwellers per capita housing area is 28 square meters, according to worldwide standards, then this level is quite high. China's urbanization rate is about 50%, it can be up to 70% -75%. , Because of the causes for the aging population, the rural population will be reduced. Therefore, China's urban population will also increase by 3 million people. -
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If we assume that these people are skillful to afford a house (in today's price of view, this argument is ridiculous), the metropolis may necessitate annexed 8.4 billion square meters of housing. China is now the work has been completed more than 20 million square meters of construction, there is still ample land to accommodate another 20 million square meters. Annual creation capacity of the construction industry about 15 million square meters. Absolute excess capability, that insufficient people to have lived in always the houses,
Lacoste Camden Trainers, the situation may soon appear. When this occurs, the consequences are very serious. Real estate prices may fall sharply, as the Japanese in the past 20 years, experienced the same, it will devastate the entire banking system. -
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real estate foam of the maximum solemn abuse namely the population change. High prices ambition decrease the birth rate. When the bubble explode, real possession prices, low fertility level of cultural merits can no be changed. Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, in its evolution process have worked via the real estate bubble. Rampant during the bubble, and their declining birth rate, then, antagonism administration provocations, the position has not changed. One is China's family planning plan in itself apt lead to catastrophic population of the next 20 years. Real estate bubble to convert more irreversible trend: Even whether the Government relinquished the home intending policy, there will be not significant effect above fertility. The next 20 years, China will face one aging population and the population decline. Of course, the real estate prices will be quite low, and a lower low afresh. -
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In appending to causing redistribution
bubble web detriment, but also bring a very serious social consequences. In the stock market bubble, a crowd of families will lose, but very few people earn pours. China's wealth gap has been a very serious phenomenon of the bubble to make the situation worse. Even until the achievement of China's urbanization, a considerable part of the people, even most people, may not have anybody money. This will lead to social instability. When most people have asset and a area in society and the market economy is stable and effective. -
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short, the current market madness will not last long. Next year, because China is still competent of releasing more liquidity, another wave of fever may occur. Strong when the dollar recovery, you may in 2012, China's stock and real estate market may be like during the eastern financial crisis, like an avalanche. -
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Bubble Dream
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