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135720 2009 年 03 月 01 日 22:21 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (1) Category: Personal Diary
this article in the following aspects of the truth of the Chinese economy.
1, what is economic development?
economic development is simply about money, but the money come from? Money can only be printed. So in the end is what makes non-stop operation of the printing press?
assuming an island with 1000 people, isolated, living among people to exchange goods, but sometimes your hand is not necessarily for the exchange of other things you want, how do? So people like to use something in exchange for gold and silver, so the exchange convenient. But gold and silver to be worn, not easy to carry, when the exchange activities between, we found that this thing is too cumbersome, limiting the exchange activities, so in order to solve this problem, think of a way, that is issued by the managers of the island a symbol , use it to replace gold and silver, so the money appeared.
start this note was convertible at any time gold and silver. We are assured, because the money is gold and silver. However, the output of gold and silver on the island is too small, when people exchange activities more frequently, not enough money, and can only suspend the exchange. The consequences of suspension of the exchange is not producing all the things other people want, because while other people use, but the exchange did not go out, to paraphrase the words of the current economic slowdown is a.
so it was thought out a way to set up a banking house, the banks are all by the banks to issue bank notes, printed money to lend money to people who want to use, and then money and then returned to the person banks. So banks have emerged.
banks will appear and can ensure a more sustainable exchange activities carried out, we all out of production, more and more things on the island, the number of banks in accordance with the production, stop printing money to ensure that for more in-depth exchange.
activity was more frequent exchange of people, and a few banks, so there have been many banks, there must be a pipe banks in it, then specify the management of other banks, a banking house, and the money only by this family banking house printing, and then through other banks who lend money, the government also appeared on such banks.
2, what is foreign trade?
invented the island one day, the boat, so the boat to run around and found another island, that some people above, there are notes, so the island like their own activities. But they produce many things on the island, the island produced something less, a dollar can buy in their own island, 1 kg of rice, the island's only a dollar to buy half a jin of rice, so the additional money to the island When to buy the island for only 2 yuan 1 yuan Caixing. So the exchange rate has emerged. Considered a good rate, they began trading with each other things to each other on the island, which is foreign trade. Foreign trade enriched people's life and production needs, so that exchange activity to an unprecedented climax.
3, what is inflation?
products because too many on the island that can not accurately estimate how much money in the end the issue, issuing more time, because there are so many products to buy, product prices began to issue less of it began to cut prices in order to ensure price stability, the central bank requires all banks make money on the part of the central bank which is used to adjust product prices, according to the price situation and less extra place. This is the deposit reserve ratio.
But some smart people how to start their own hands to get the money, he picked up a stone in the sea, saying that the value of 100 million quick stones, sold it to a person, this person feel that the entire island with no money plus 100 million, ah, how to do, so to moneylenders, banks are not so much money, so the printing press opened, printed the 100 million lent he bought the stones .
then began to sell the stones of this, 100 million sold a second person, as the first stone of the people to spend money to sell, so the island's more money, so that millions can be raised , buy some products have a. But this stone to the transfer of 200 million, when banks only and printed 100 million bank notes, so the more money the more Indian, but when the stone kept the flow of transfer, the more money we do not think the island , as product prices or the original. But when the stone does not flow or circulation is slow, you think more money, but if and when the person holds a stone thrown into the sea it, it equal to nothing out of the island more than 100 million to N, how do , the central bank's most afraid of is the Fengyun stone gone. It is not the island product prices will soar, will inflation. Then the person who held kidnapped stones in the island's economy.
4, house prices could kidnap the Chinese economy?
China's real estate has made a lot of China's central bank issued RMB, and if house prices fall, is equivalent to that stone dropped into the sea, so much money to print out the price of Chinese products will soar, will serious inflation.
prices and stones appear to have no coherent, but their properties are the same, that is, a serious departure from the price and value. In fact the biggest victims of the collapse of real estate is not China's commercial banks, but the entire Chinese economy. Why the Government has yet to put prices down,
全国搞笑的网吧名称.............. - Qzone日志, not cut down, if you really want to drop prices, just a decree, the real estate prices will collapse overnight. But who can bear the consequences of serious inflation, who is responsible?
real estate industry has kidnapped the Chinese economy is no doubt, is the objective reality, no one can change.
no matter who is prime minister, clean Ye Hao, corruption, it is all hope of social harmony, but this is a difficult problem.
5, house prices and inflation related?
can be more difficult problem is more here. If the lower prices, faced with inflation immediately, do not drop prices, then the face is more inflation, what next?
So the most reliable way is to stabilize housing prices and increases in the social product, reduce the amount of money supply, coupled with other policies such as raising interest rates, increase in commercial bank reserve ratio, reducing the size of credit and other aids , to make a soft landing for the Chinese economy, this is the best way, we see that this logic is all the decree. Do not believe, you can access to what in recent years, the Government issued a series of measures to control the real estate industry.
But why the soaring house prices and more unstable it? Is the game developers and the government do? Tell you that no one in China and destabilize the party, several major points of the stomach is not the strength of the developer. Is actually a black hand behind the other game in and the Chinese government, this black hand that is foreign to the U.S. imperialist grab for the Chinese people on behalf of the blood and sweat of the black hand.
6, what is the driving force behind rising prices?
power to make a lot of housing prices, housing prices is the driving force in his favor, one person, such as: GDP and personal interests to local government, in order to make money for developers, real estate family, so that bought a house in the so-called
developers as a businessman, in order to earn high profits is not a wicked thing, but all walks of life have businessmen, do not want to make there is it? Unless it is a myth. Real estate developers, too, is not how many there are that many of them want to make. According to the law of value, the price and value when a serious departure, there will be a tendency to suppress the power of the normal price return prices, but the real estate industry in China, this law seems to not work is that it overlooks an important reason a reference range of reasons, the Chinese economy itself, if indeed broken the law, but the current situation is that there is a force in the maintenance of the real estate prices, that is, prop up the market, then who is to shore up the market? Who in the real estate
to get huge profits out of control person who is propping up the market.
discuss this issue, now look at China's foreign exchange reserves. China's foreign exchange reserves rapidly in recent years a breakthrough by the 1,2 billion trillion, and is growing rapidly, is it the Chinese people work hard, earned it? This does not need proof, look at China's GDP growth rate, we know that foreign exchange reserves significantly greater than the growth rate of GDP growth. Clearly not earned, then in addition to a part of earned, then the so-called
international hot money into China market, we must first be converted into yuan, then how can there suddenly so many yuan it? Only one way is to let the printing presses day and night work, and then the money is used for boosting the hot potato of the real estate market is desperate for investment in real estate, when the value of real estate prices down due to deviate from fluctuations, then it is elevated by propping up the market, repeated that, giving the appearance that the price must not deviate from the value of the property. Lead to higher house prices rose more.
the developers do, they get to the house will not sell the time, it was the nose down, how they will cut prices, if not this part of the funds in the operation, not to mention the developer Union, is Only one national developer, the price will come down, no one bought the house do so moldy it?
it holds so many high-priced real estate foreign investors to do? Not afraid to hit hands?
not afraid! Why? In the process of capital operation, there is a suckers at the bottom then it is who? Commercial Bank of China, the hot real estate market, first-class liquidity, decline in recent years have not seen any signs, put the loan on the profit, why not loans? No reason to hold loans.
coupled with the feelings of the Chinese people to buy a house, foreign investment can easily be passed on to the Gaojiefang Chinese banks and consumers, and even real estate can earn a share of the farmers, foreign investors will lose money do professional?
then house prices have been going up, what will happen? See the next section: Chamber of Commerce whether to laugh or cry? Under what circumstances will laugh? Under what circumstances cry?
intensive in recent years, dozens of China under the control of gold, prices, or if off the reins of the horse bolted more than the same. Putting aside the time to stop the momentum of rise, after all, is still rising house prices, so we will see more than what housing prices.
First of all: the GDP rose above that of China in order to maintain the Not as long as the stone of real estate into the open sea, there are some liquidity, then there would be no inflation occurs.
Second: the developer is also in the process earn huge profits.
again: to see that the real estate group will make money, buy a house so-called
are making money! But in the end who is in the process lose it? The money come from? If you have a stock of experience will know, if the investment away from the commodity price and value, you lose money is someone else's money, then applied to real estate, that is, people who buy their own homes, and now appears to value-added, It was on the mirror, Stronghold, you do not realize it is not you. There is also the true value when prices return to full time, sometimes even to the true value of what was 高价房 captive investors. Another is the developer!
Why do developers have to lose money? We all know the nature of business to make money, make a profit. If the speculation once a businessman never do this business, he is making money, but he is not a business, this does not make sense business practices. Because the nature of business, so the money earned will continue to expand production in the field can continue to make money to invest. This principle can be seen from the life, the more big business is always on call money, due to the greater flow of funds to maintain its expanded reproduction needs.
so once prices return to the real value is that when the day of the collapse of a large number of developers. This is not the will of any person and any act for the transfer. If you now have fled the real estate arena developer, then Paode Man is the final loser. If you do not run, pass like a flower like drumming, and finally got the baton is then set those. There is a saying: Maybe just a different way, just to see who's lucky.
but now the developer does not have any signs of losing money, some developers continue to make money, people give money too late. Just because the current prices are still rising, real estate also continued to flow.
a huge problem here, so when prices are rising head ah, see the following section: blood and sweat sleep, but every day around the corner, in up to no good, to achieve their evil purpose. It is true they did not have so arrogant arrogance, but they do in the event with. it? The concept of equality is right, but it is only imperialist trick to deceive people fills said and done will always be two different things.
international consortium through the international hot money into China, the renminbi to increase circulation, and through real estate speculation, China's domestic price level to an unlimited increase, GDP growth in circulation once again to make the yuan was force increased. Blackhand ruthless international consortium heart, two-pronged approach is designed to make China's economy to the hot heat, heat to let the crazy people of every Chinese.
we will not to care about this process, we look to the future and see the results of this process is like? In other words, the purpose of the consortium is it?
Obviously, the Chinese people are most reluctant to see things that are most pleased to see the results of the consortium. Be the first hypothesis, such as international hot money in the investment of Chinese real estate staging area after the last mad, then get out of trouble all the successful realization of real estate, if the exchange rate of renminbi against the dollar at this time to achieve the highest expected the United States, the exchange rate is when the hot money to flee need to multiply that times, what happens anyone can think of, all the hot money will flee U.S. dollar overnight and all. We will earn the consortium level ditch filled trench, the Chinese market, but money is money that can cover a lot of days, the renminbi will become a nightmare for the Chinese people.
This is the Chinese people are most reluctant to see things, is most pleased to see the results of the consortium. Recently the United States continued through political, trade and other means to force the appreciation of the RMB, and China does not appreciate or slow the appreciation of small-scale, far from the U.S. government's expectations, this is the exit of the game between China and the U.S.. Appreciation of the renminbi's wild ambition to force the United States all too clear!
Incidentally, if we really reached the expected appreciation of the Chinese property market in Japan will be repeated collapse of the last century, the history of 90 years. But at that time will be like Japan, China's economy into a continuous slump of no return.
9, at about this price and inflation around the game between the parties may choose the mean line
I have always believed: extremes meet, moderation is after our ancestors left people solve difficult problems killer! Since it is a Chinese real estate
What is
Let's take a look at both sides of the line and kidnapped their own hands the chips. Main body of the real estate industry developers, so developers operator side, it is vital kidnapped Chinese economy, and that the crucial point of the Chinese economy who is it? The crucial point of the Chinese people, on behalf of the Chinese people, now only the Chinese government. The Chinese government considered a party. Foreign investment it? It is to fan the flames were zoned to the developer side. Chinese Government Fangyou Gong power, through tax, financial, economic policies, administrative means to force developers to camp, camp by a steady stream of developers to reserve funds to kidnap the Chinese economy, and continuously improve the ransom.
problem has been put in here, how to do it? Rushed to the shot and killed, and that non-criminals threatened to kill is not too extreme feasible. Therefore, the Government promising a prescription, as long as one can achieve a certain idea of lower prices, as if shot dead, like this is not feasible. Imagine how we save kidnapping, first to stabilize each other's emotional lives, and then step by step close, but close to, although this will cause hostility criminals, but will not cause him threatened to kill, and then further stabilize mood, and then close, then When conditions are ripe, and then steady Accurate, that is, to ensure the safety of the hostages, but also to ensure that criminals winning. This is the real rescue.
solutions to difficult problems so moderation is the killer. Extreme, blind,
What to do, how to do, aggressive is undesirable.
for Chinese real estate market, how to solve the abduction issue, we should focus on a key part of the problem step by step to impose a reaction force, and successful, is the right way.
first key part is the exchange rate, China will strictly control the exchange rate relations, we can expect that the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar appreciation will never be too fast, but small appreciation, is to stabilize each other's emotions If that does not rise, they will cornered, if the rise too fast, is to dig their own grave, so why the increase in China's exchange rate is always still holds partly concealed, with a look at the attitude of the United States how the relevance of the kidnappers, I To a bottle of fruit juice, why bring half a bottle of water. What can and can not tell, after all, being able to quench their thirst.
second key is to limit the liquidity of assets, since the real estate to kidnap the Chinese economy, that it is important to limit the liquidity of real estate, you can limit the liquidity of assets, pay attention here are two concepts, Liquidity The two are completely different, but closely related. Weakening real estate liquidity, reduced liquidity, you need to print yuan to decrease. Just as the stone, does not flow right away inflation, price increases circulation without no problem, but does not work, foreign investment does not agree. Since it is constantly rising price of real estate can only restrict the flow step by step, as long as the property less liquidity, inflation will show a little, and then through the reserve ratio increases and interest rates and other flexible policies to adjust the point, with willow cotton silk palm to resolve a Tyson punch, just to soft and Keqiang, of crushing the invisible, which is China's strategy (which is like the Chinese do best.) We can see from the official media related news, the property market signing rate is declining, that decline in liquidity, and prices began to rise, such as pork and other staple food products,
人可以无耻到什么程度？ - Qzone日志, but once the central bank raised the reserve ratio and interest rates to price stability. Tell me what you do not know whether to see some clues. Can be expected that, to fully resolve the crisis, will continue to raise interest rates and raise the reserve ratio, and liquidity of real estate will become increasingly weak, this prediction is accurate in the future central bank policy verification. Such as complete elimination of economic overheating due to inflation expectations, then that is the true value of real estate when prices return.
not see whether you can see, this is the last crazy, we analyzed two ways:
First, if this game ended in victory for foreign investment, then the Chinese economy Japan will step into the abyss of 90 years continues to decline, due to withdrawal of foreign capital, the survival of the pillars of the housing market collapse, prices will plummet, whether it is available when the developer or the people will bear the pain of economic downturn, currency held by the rapid depreciation, even if house prices fall, not necessarily to buy from. This is unacceptable and the Chinese people, and it is unacceptable.
Second, if foreign investors ended in failure, that is, keeping guard at the exchange rate on exports, so that prices return to the true value, the same set of foreign investment in China, this is the prerequisite of victory. So the consortium led by the United States who will hemophagocytic crazy imperialist government retaliation in investment, exports and other parties to put pressure on the face of China. Today, we did not meet U.S. expectations of RMB appreciation, China's exports to the United States has led to products subject to suppression, thereby causing a large number of trade friction, is obvious. We know that the troika of economic development is investment, exports and consumption, investment, export sector retaliation will affect China's economic development, but I believe our development will not affect the speed, do not forget to also set on a cart is Ngau Tau engine.
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