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137867 2008 年 03 月 11 日 00:26 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: economic
Today China is an open country, in an open process, we get the development opportunities, we also face new risks. In the capital markets, we face the risk is particularly prominent. In some areas, foreign capital is gradually led or has led many Chinese industrial sectors, corresponding to the Chinese domestic production and consumption structure is a serious imbalance, environmental degradation, livelihood issues outstanding. And all this core issue is the exchange rate between the U.S. and war.
war Sino-US exchange rate is essentially a war between nations currency is U.S. monetary policy, the two sides of the exchange rate policy, the contest between China's currency policy. Implementation of a weak dollar policy, interest rates continued to promote the appreciation of the renminbi is the United States in the war the main behavior. The purpose of this financial attack is mild, and gradually weaken the Chinese economy to the collapse of the ability of China to become U.S. competitors.
monetary policy in this contest, our country is to choose a passive policy of driving out to meet the U.S. list, or choose to take the initiative to defend the country's economic security and economic results, which is related to the future destiny of the Chinese economy the issue, but also related to China's political stability and social stability. China's macro-economic decision-making bodies must be open to re-evaluate the current system point of view of international and domestic economic situation, and firmly grasp the initiative in China's economic development and initiative.
present, China ranks the world's 1.53 trillion U.S. dollars foreign exchange reserves has become America's game. China's huge dollar reserves as the Chinese traders in the international foreign exchange market had made a large amount of improper trading, the international hunters are extremely excited, but we do not smell the bloody killing. From the day appreciation of the RMB, China began international wealth transfers: the transfer from home to overseas Chinese, mainly the United States. Faster appreciation of the policy is only to accelerate the international transfer of this wealth, [/ size] does not solve the other problems facing China.
from the standpoint of U.S. interests, the Fed cut interest rates, depreciation of the dollar, or even claim to provide unlimited liquidity for the U.S. people and U.S. financial institutions, the best protection, is completely correct, reflecting Americans smart but selfish financial wisdom. However, the practice of the Federal Reserve can achieve the intended purpose, which requires the Central Bank of China to develop and implement the opposite with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy given full cooperation. In fact, the Chinese central bank's monetary policy is the corresponding interest rates, the RMB appreciation, monetary tightening. China's monetary policy under attack in the dollar weighed down completely lost the currency initiative, but China is not in the game to please the U.S. achieve its aims. Between China and the U.S. central bank is the result of different choices: The United States continued to cut interest rates, depreciation of the dollar or even refuse to provide unlimited dollar claim, and gradually get rid of the subprime lending crisis, but maintaining price stability, to avoid inflation; China, the opposite , China's central bank to raise interest rates to continue to constantly raise the reserve ratio, increase the rate of yuan appreciation, or even to take administrative measures such as window guidance to tighten the money supply, forcing difficult to survive and develop grass-roots enterprises, but still could not suppress the trend of rising prices. The face of inflationary pressure and severe economic structural imbalances, the public and almost one-sided in favor of the government policies to further raise the deposit reserve ratio, to further accelerate the appreciation of the yuan, and no regard for this series of policy may have serious consequences, not proof This series of policy can achieve the intended purpose.
Today, China's domestic and international economic environment in which very different twenty years ago, but economic theory and economic management departments to determine the pattern of the Chinese economy, ideas and means of macroeconomic control is still stuck in Twenty years ago the level. If you follow the traditional ideas and measures to control the economy, not only counterproductive, but also costly. To accelerate the appreciation of the renminbi, to raise the deposit reserve ratio, a simple mechanical control policies such as raising interest rates will lead to further deterioration of the macroeconomic situation in China:
First, increasing the pressure of RMB appreciation
China's economy today is a too open economy, highly dependent on foreign economic relations, foreign exchange reserves more than 1.53 trillion U.S. dollars, and are mainly invested in U.S. Treasuries market. Dollars of capital investment through a variety of ways you can continue to flow into China. Local governments and national ministries for selfishness, U.S. capital inflows to prevent the defense has been non-existent, which is China's economic policy makers must face the reality. This is the situation did not exist twenty years ago. Faced with this reality of the domestic economy, the Fed's dollar policy when using flooding, then, China's tight monetary policy must be the hardest hit flood dollars. China's tight monetary policy means raising the reserve ratio and interest rates, means reducing the amount of RMB delivery means to improve the RMB attractive, only to the U.S. dollar to flock to the territory of more turbulent, the RMB was forced to rise.
present, foreign and domestic experts and scholars called on the government to increase the rate of yuan appreciation, I hope 10% appreciation of the renminbi in 2008, while further raising interest rates and raising the deposit reserve ratio in order to dampen domestic inflation. In fact this policy mix is likely to create economic disaster.
from the Chinese year of the current deposit interest rate upwards to 4.14% 3.87%, 10% if the yuan appreciation, foreign hot money into China's risk-free rate of return as high as 14.14%, while the U.S. interest rate cuts benchmark interest rate after the 3%, which is the basic cost of foreign hot money, overseas funds to arbitrage reached 11.14%, funds of hedge funds can use leverage to speculate more than 10 times magnification, the funds can be as high annual yield of 111.40% or more. Led to a huge temptation of hot money into China from overseas. 2007 was a year of sharp appreciation of the renminbi, but also a substantial increase in foreign exchange reserves up 43% of the year. Individual experts through to curb hot money inflow of yuan appreciation policy errors committed Baoxinjiuhuo has been verified.
Second, the RMB appreciation process is a potential crisis brewing process
appreciation of the RMB deposit interest rate of RMB and U.S. dollar cost of capital is greater than once, it means that the excessive appreciation of the renminbi and deposits over interest rates. Not a direct loss of RMB appreciation to reduce exports, there is no change to the dollar, but China's 1.53 trillion U.S. dollars as foreign exchange reserves as the snow melts every day, is the national wealth being eroded by the weak dollar. RMB appreciation means that a large number of overseas assets in China after the completion of value in exchange for more dollars for, you can easily exchange the near future, take the country's foreign exchange reserves, which rely on the Chinese consume resources and labor disappear in an instant wealth earned RMB into this battle with the U.S. dollar. This is the price appreciation of the renminbi.
view of the rapid appreciation of the RMB advocates forget that China has 1.53 trillion U.S. dollars of foreign exchange reserves, also ignores the huge amount of foreign capital has mastered the RMB assets, the yuan has appreciated several times after the revaluation of assets need to faster, consumed more of China's foreign exchange reserves. China's economy has reached 70% of external dependence, which is an extremely dangerous proportion, which means large-scale conversion of dollars in emergency situations, China to increase export capacity is very limited. Substantial appreciation of the RMB will not room for the Chinese economy pressing the dead, then, the financial crisis, various types of corporate equity, debt or cheap to foreign institutions to become an inevitable outcome. In fact, China is repeating the financial crisis occurred in the early stages of national and regional roads.
with U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's belief, I think that can not do that, the Chinese yuan is overvalued may face the situation. If the rapid appreciation of the renminbi, and that China is a very bad thing for the yuan against the U.S. dollar should be stabilized at about 7.5. : rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is bad should be stable at 7.5 deterioration
according to Western economic doctrines, currency appreciation can discourage exports and imports, which can suppress inflation. However, this dogma in today's China is not applicable, on the contrary, the RMB appreciation will not only inflation, but the culprit that drove inflation. This is because China is not a closed economy, but an over-open economy. China's current inflation is the continued appreciation in the RMB after, not before occurred in the appreciation of the renminbi. Speak louder than words. The reality of the Chinese economy can overturn all of the economic doctrines. Dogma of Western economics is not only excessive openness of the Chinese economy, U.S. dollar or the U.S. did not create can be established under the premise of flooding.
The formation of inflation in China is:
stage 1, a large number of overseas capital into China and dominate exports, exports of foreign enterprises accounted for 60% of China's total exports at the same time, overseas capital to purchase a large number of low prices of domestic corporate equity, this time, both an excuse to force appreciation of the renminbi, but also very good.
Phase 2, under pressure from the United States, the RMB began to appreciate, and expectations of continued appreciation of the formation of a large number of speculative hot money to pour into China through various channels, the real estate market, the enterprise's equity market and stock secondary market.
Stage 3, the central bank notes through the issuance of U.S. dollar hedge, want to maintain the pace of yuan appreciation. The open market hedging, in essence, is to domestic enterprises in the hands of the RMB to the dollar holdings of collecting overseas agencies, Chinese domestic enterprises to reduce this part of the development opportunities corresponding to the RMB, and in U.S. dollars for this part of the RMB foreign institutions have made the appropriate investment opportunities. China similar to the Tung Shing Group, a private enterprise like why did it have the The reason here. From another perspective, this is equivalent to hedging operations to take control of the People's Bank of China as part of the right to transfer to the Fed. This is a transfer of the right currency. U.S. low-cost initial victory, tasted the sweetness, so the Fed printing presses at full horsepower, day and night without any hesitation, and the Chinese central bank to tighten monetary domestic enterprises, domestic enterprises tightened the development of space, and the close up of the RMB funds through hedge the way to the U.S. dollar holders, holders of those dollars to buy financial equity in China and industrial shares, acquisition of land, gold, coal mines, highways, water supply facilities.
from early 2007 to December 12, the central bank were issued throughout the year central bank bills 3930000000000; net central bank's repo transactions, from 2003 to 2007, the issuing central bank bills net excess liquidity of about 4 million billion; As of October 2007, foreign exchange has reached 12.72 trillion yuan, which means that 10% appreciation of the renminbi, we exchange losses reached 1.272 trillion yuan. In this hedge transactions, through the issuance of U.S. Federal Reserve expanded its economic territory, the dollar sign into the physical assets and resources, while sitting on revenue of RMB appreciation and RMB lost its economic territory and the dollar change into U.S. Treasury bonds, to accept the continued depreciation.
Stage 4, the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts implemented, depreciation, claiming to provide unlimited dollar liquidity policy has not led to U.S. inflation, have created China's inflation. Dollar bank notes issued hedge open market operations, in essence, is the domestic production and management agency handling the funds to the foreign institutions. Thus, on the one hand the domestic production and tight working capital management units, private lending interest rate up to 30%, on the other overseas institutions to maintain a strong yuan of hot money, can make large-scale investments and acquisitions, driving up the prices of resources and products. China's financial system, the imbalance of resource allocation in both RMB creating effective supply of inflation, but also created a cost-push inflation. At present, China's inflation is the role of these two cross-product of inflation. U.S. flooding, RMB appreciation, RMB open market operations mismatch of this resource is the root of inflation.
appreciation of the renminbi and China's tighter monetary policy will have an enormous economic damage, but they can perfectly match the Fed's macroeconomic objectives: to maintain a weak dollar, low interest rates and low inflation, commitment to raise unlimited liquidity in order to survive the subprime crisis, while, for the future implementation of a strong dollar policy, China's foreign exchange reserves and dry to prepare for.
As of December 27, 2007, the central bank a total return of funds reached 6.94 trillion yuan, of which, through the issuance of central bank bills and repurchase of capital return is 5.14 trillion yuan; ten times raising the deposit reserve rate to return the funds about 1.8 trillion yuan. The amount of hedge funds due after the release, the central bank a net return of funds of up to 2.63 trillion yuan, an increase over last year of about 1.38 trillion yuan, equivalent to a daily 19.0 billion capital return from the market. Central capital returns in the efforts to strengthen the same time, but the rapid increase in foreign exchange, foreign exchange reserves only the amount of three-quarter estimates, the amount of foreign exchange this year than last year added more than twice (element
Fourth, the trend of RMB appreciation and the appreciation of domestic currency is expected to result in an extremely passive control means trapped in a situation
trend in the appreciation of the renminbi remains unchanged, if lower interest rates, increasing money supply , then the increase will lead to negative interest rates, deposits of domestic enterprises and residents will be subject to greater losses, inflation will worsen; the contrary, if we raise interest rates, reduce the money supply, then arbitrage will lead to increase hot money overseas large development opportunities for domestic enterprises has been further squeezed, to the foreign acquisitions of Chinese companies and provide greater opportunities for domestic resources, China's economic trend in Latin America is more serious. Despite the latter's policy to reduce inflationary pressures may be temporarily, but inflation in the future along with the financial crisis erupted more intense way. States to the historical fact that the economic crisis has become common knowledge that the above conclusions.
Fifth,
[Video] souls, Turkey 12-year-old boy to imitate MJ. - Qzone log, exchange and interest rates are the main tool for income redistribution, faster appreciation would lead to further domestic and international income distribution imbalances
in the case of accelerated appreciation of the renminbi, the domestic interest rate Space is limited, residents and businesses may be long-term maintenance of deposit levels in the negative interest rates, making the interests of depositors suffer losses, prompting some to leave the bank deposits of actual purchasing power, increased inflationary pressures. CPI reaches 4.8% in 2007, the bank one-year deposit rate is 4.14%, 0.72% interest rate for demand deposits, residents and business deposit rate is -0.66%, and the deposits October 38 trillion calculations, negative interest rates make the depositors the loss of 2,500 billion yuan. RMB against the U.S. dollar is starting from July 2005 revaluation, after the RMB exchange rate basically remained at around 8.27 and then begin to appreciate all the way and appeared to accelerate the trend, as of the end of January the median price reached 7.20, the appreciation rate of 12.94%, China exchange losses over 150 billion U.S. dollars, the equivalent loss of 1.2 trillion yuan, more than 2006 full-year revenue 2 trillion yuan central government for more than half.
if the yuan continues to appreciate in 2008 10%, China 1.5 trillion foreign exchange reserves in recent depreciation of $ 150,000,000,
Many would like to hold your hand - Qzone log,000 a corresponding, equivalent to more than 1 trillion of national wealth losses again billion RMB. Deposits of businesses and residents exchange losses and foreign exchange reserves and the loss of between 1.3-1.5 billion yuan, equivalent to the annual central fiscal revenue in 2006, two trillion yuan of 65-75%, also significantly more than the 2007 creation of central enterprises the sum of profits. The difference between the two losses: the loss of negative interest rates of deposits caused by the redistribution of domestic wealth belongs to the dollar's depreciation reserves is an international redistribution of national wealth, is the loss of national wealth. This will be our appreciation of the renminbi-based implementation of the macro-tightening policies of the cost, but also will constitute the source of the vital interests of U.S. exporters.
face flood of U.S. dollars, the Bank of England chose to resist, not to meet. Index of UK producer output prices in November rose by 4.5%, for the past 16 years,
Military beggar's words, moving 1.3 billion Chinese people (if you have love, pl, the biggest rise since, PPI input prices rose 10.2% over the same period. Bank of England not to tighten policy, not to raise interest rates, the dollar does not provide for the flood depth and interest to promote induction of the currency space, on the contrary, the Bank of England chose to fight, to take the same with the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy in the December 6 cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, which is the bank since August 2005 the first rate cut since (see .) The root causes of global inflation is the United States, is that the Fed's dollar policy trash, rather than the central bank monetary policy itself, therefore, the operation of the Bank of England thought worth learning and reflection.
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