Lang's dual theory of economic and 6 +1
Source: Tobacco, according to reports of Sina: Lang Date: June 23, 2008
Dual Economy:
China Currently there are two dollars of economic, investment overheating part to the blind pursuit of GDP growth in local government as the representative of the project, such as real estate investment; accounted for 30% of the Chinese economy; too cold part is part of private enterprises, accounting for 70%.
now account for the manufacturing economy is not subject to overheating, on the contrary there is a crisis of survival difficult: U.S. devaluation, inflation, labor costs, financing difficulties; this has led to many factories closed, switch, or the same time transferred money to overheated industries such as real estate, high-speed rail and infrastructure, resulting in some of the more cold cold, heat some more heat; this phenomenon will increase as the government macro-control, more and more serious; Taipei house prices rise is a good description, Guangzhou, Dongguan, turn off a lot of Taiwanese factories, invest in real estate went to Taipei to go;
Shanghai's housing prices will rise, because many factories in the country will continue to close their funds are will go to real estate, Shanghai is an ideal choice, so that the turning point in China's housing prices is nonsense.
we are proud of the domestic brands, Haier, is now huh 15.0 billion invested in real estate, Industrial shift from speculation; Lang views of Professor Zhang is the beginning of speculation by such high profits to maintain their own manufacturing sad.
Therefore, if the government can not make enough to support manufacturing in China, the monetary tightening across the board, with the the raw material prices and the depreciation of U.S. dollars, China's manufacturing sector will be in Europe and America in danger of industrial capital controls; a growing number of joint ventures, acquisition is a good example.
industry, from the lift, ROTARY acquisition Hanmaikesen, BOSCH decoder in the South acquired the factory, there is an increase in joint ventures, such as a joint venture between Honda and Italy are good examples. Hanmaikesen affected sales in the United States ROTARY market, so acquisition; joint venture is the first step in temporarily, the next step will be annexed to share for technology is certainly not wise;
6 +1 theory is the theory
6 +1 position on the image of the industry chain saying:
high profits in the industry 6 include: product design, raw material procurement, storage and transportation, order processing, wholesale business, retail terminal; 1 is in the most profitable low-end manufacturing;
proud to say that until we Chinese people the most industrious, the most intelligent, China is a big manufacturing country, we have cost advantages; but think about down will find hard is because there is no efficiency; wise nation is not to position themselves in the most low-end chain of the amount of ; the same does not hold a big manufacturing country, because we are just to be OEM to make the poor hard-earned money;
we have no cost advantage, because the manufacturing cost does not account for a significant portion of the value of the product, even if manufactured in Europe and America costs are high, but some can be easily found in the other 6.
before us now the critical issue is to upgrade the industrial chain, although very difficult, but this is the only way out;
European and American enterprises to consume major raw materials, high pollution and low value-added parts into China, then he can easily profit, the state's environmental and energy had no effect.
the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is not caused by dollar devaluation of the reasons.
U.S. dollar depreciation is a U.S. national strategy.
because of China's foreign exchange reserves are U.S. dollar terms, the United States is China's main exporting country, so take this opportunity to carry out aggression against China's industry is a good chance. so the U.S. government has repeatedly to revalue its currency, so many rely on export-oriented enterprises bear the loss due to forced joint ventures, or sold. If our government does not quickly reflect the economic might of China will fall into the control of their hands. is alarmist, but it is being fulfilled.
survival and development of enterprises to have to seize the essence of the industry, the premise of high quality, high-end to 6 in the industrial chain embarked.
high quality, rapid market response, efficient integration.
Attachment: Lang: China has formed a \Corporate governance experts, financial experts, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Dr. Lang, in the first (2007), most growth-oriented enterprises in China Development Forum's speech:
friends Shanghai, the guests, good afternoon. Today Back Shanghai was particularly excited speech and excited mood. I remember in between 04 to 06 have a show in Shanghai, called \Chen Liangyu, the show was finally turned off. because I criticized him, the organization of social security funds.'m here today speaking of the most growing enterprises. I ask all of you entrepreneurs, how do you develop, what do you think ? Do you feel your life is sad every day. Whether you are who you are what industry you are in any place, your days are more and more sad, more and more sad, so sad circumstances also talk about development , On the growth itself is ridiculous. because how can you. On the growth, I would like to ask you two questions, first, you know the development environment? you understand their business strategy is correct? First, we talk about the external environment, the recent stock market bubble, housing bubble coupled with inflation. Do you think the property market and stock market bubble, and so the phenomenon is not that our investors have confidence in the country's economic development. ask you, do you think is behind these phenomena because the stock market , the property market is a barometer of economic development? I'd like to hear your views. I am sure that everyone's opinions do not know the real answer. tell you that in the circumstances do not understand the external environment to talk about business growth itself is very funny.
why the stock market bubble, housing bubble, these are only superficial, inflation is only superficial. The real issue is the core of the growth of your investment environment which produced a huge change. How to explain the essence? I would like to give you the word through the foam to be answered. Today, because of time constraints, there is no way to roll out about many issues, but I will talk about several key with you. First of all, in the end any money into the stock and property markets. Why have these funds appear? and is closely related to today's topic. Recently, many media reports, including the central bank, experts have raised, the bubble is caused due to excess liquidity. I tell you, I do not agree. It is a textbook version of foreign textbooks can not get the Chinese to use. is very simple, if it is excess liquidity, then some effective macro-control.
, but the actual situation? more stressed the more stock prices rise, the more prices rise, more stressed the more worse. to say that the nature of these phenomena appear significant. First, we rapidly deteriorating business environment for investment, for this subject, I want to tell you. In recent years, China's investment environment as the rapid deterioration of entrepreneurs to invest should invest the money without the formation of my so-called virtual money into the stock and property markets. how much money the Chinese entrepreneurs to invest in advanced Western countries will be less than 20%. left so much money do, the formation of virtual funds into the stock and property markets. The second sum is the corruption of today's large area under the bribe corrupt officials at all levels, gone, not disappeared. The formation of the second tranche of funds virtual funds into the stock and property markets. The third is the capital of international hot money you are talking about. Finally you talk about saving money is the problem of liquidity. the virtual money is the most important part of the first I said, entrepreneurs should invest the money rather than the formation of the first investment funds. The second document is the result of large-scale corruption, corruption, money. Once the formation of this virtual money, and immediately have the characteristics of the three strange. The first non-regulation, the second can not control , the third and unpredictable. hit where, where there is foam.
you listen to me talked about this, should be able to understand why the stock price after the macro-control more inflation, prices rose even more. Because the most significant source of virtual money China's investment environment is rapidly deteriorating, squeeze out a lot of virtual money into the stock and property markets. Therefore, the inevitable result of macro-control is further blow to the investment environment has deteriorated. thus squeezing out the more virtual money into the stock market and property markets. This is why the stock rose the morning of the afternoon austerity. talked about this, I believe you should be chilling the hearts of entrepreneurs here, according to Professor Lang's theory, the more stock prices rise, the more prices rise, not a better economic environment, there is room for growth , but the rapid deterioration which room to grow. Meanwhile, corruption is more serious. the stock market, housing bubble real essence of the meaning response is the first investment environment worsened, the second serious corruption. This virtual money can not be contained, can not control, do not know where to run it can be said to go to groups of without a trace. More serious is the investment in the rapid deterioration of the business environment gives you room to grow with the rapid compression. Today, China hot or too cold? today to see to Sina, who a press report saying that China has the transition economy, do you think is right? Do you think this is the meaning of numbers were out of the nature of the problem? I can tell you, it is not.
easily believe that if news, then you have been misled. Today, China is definitely not overheating, ladies and gentlemen, to know what China is the status quo? That is today's China has become the world can almost be said to be unique and unprecedented \system \business environment is particularly important, if you ask me, what department heat, cold which departments to answer this remark, I have to say that our local government's policy of mind. Since 1995, the country has a so-called local government \\? seem to have less important. you find out local government building to lift the GDP can pay any price, including the landless, including pollution, have only one purpose lift GDP. a few years, until today, the resources of local government to mislead reasons, so we rushed a lot of domestic resources and construction-related sectors, these sectors are overheated sectors. real estate, steel, cement, performance engineering, the image of engineering and the banks for their financing and so on. these sectors in today's China's economy is overheating inside the department. most of the other private sector enterprises is too cold. So today's China, and its environment is also overheating, but there is too cold. Under this environment will produce two all of you guests are very concerned about the results. The first, the inevitable failure of macro-control city; second major area of inflation. \increased 0.25%, 0.25% increase you find these overheated sectors, it had the so-called overheating, do not because of economic factors. but on the concept of GDP as the key link, so that these sectors overheating, rising interest rates, according to borrow it, do not stop . So hotter overheated sectors, on the contrary, over most of the private enterprise sector, which is basically an underground source of funding for financial and black market. According to my results show that they are very sensitive to the interest rate is four times the official , the central bank increased 0.25%, interest rates should be increased by 1% of civil, reaching four times. a blow to the already increased immediately flute section is the private sector, so the more xiao xiao Article Article department. Today the results of macro-control, you find overheating of the sector more heat, and cold sectors colder. make macro-control failure.
second corollary is also kind of environment, some serious inflation. Last year
Nike Shox TL Men, the harvest of agricultural products, for example, according to the economic theory, agricultural harvest, grain and oil prices should drop my son. But the economics are not used in China. to January, the Chinese grain and oil prices surged to a maximum rate of 20%. The reason is that dual economy, local government has resources over to the overheated sectors, the lack of cold sector funds. government has to print money, a lot of money issued the results of grain and oil prices rose in January to form the main cause. Why do six, seven, in August, chickens, ducks, eggs, pork prices rising price of pork rose by 26% in May until August, are both up 50% to 60%. Why? or dual economy. Why is the price of pork rose sharply. two factors, first, classical swine fever; Second, rising feed prices. These two reasons make the pig of the private entrepreneurs to invest the rapid deterioration of business environment, according to previous theories. If the pig farms rapid deterioration of investment environment, he will not invest , squeeze out a lot of virtual money into the stock market and property markets. Finally, we find that the price of pork, eggs, mainly due to price increases after the score, dead pigs, no follow-up pig. pigs are not kept private entrepreneurs, took care pig money in stocks and property speculation. This is what I call virtual money.
virtual money under the dual economy must generate misleading inflation, on the surface, you come into contact with the current environment is the stock market bubble, the property market bubble inflation. It is what the nature of the problem? that we have formed an unprecedented in China's dual economy. Our economy is overheating while at the same time cold. too cold sector willingness to invest very poor, because business investment environmental degradation, squeezing a lot of virtual money into the stock market and property markets. In addition, the overheated sector and corruption is more related to the basic sectors. corruption has also created virtual money into the stock and property markets. further contributing to the bubble, and the currency swell.
Today, I made very brief talk about the stock market, including the guests should have been here you understand, the original essence of the phenomenon that the bubble is that you live by the growth of the enterprise environment is already in decline. Therefore, Today, I started to ask you one word, How was your day? definitely more sad. No matter who you are, what industry, no matter where you are, your days are more and more sad. The reason is that in front of me speak. and you will make you sad days are reluctant to invest more, to do what is good? buy real estate good, play the stock market to be good. So squeeze more virtual money into the stock market, property market, the worse your day, Vietnam did not want to invest in the stock market, property market the better, more powerful inflation. This is the reality of the second half of 2007.
This is why the beginning I said, poor awareness of entrepreneurs to invest in China because of investment in the business environment rapid deterioration
Christian Dior Cannage Bag, and corruption. talking about this, your next sentence is: Lang, Professor, how do I do? economy come to this phenomenon, the situation is not my cause. But I can tell you, is the current status of your external environment in which these entrepreneurs are under restrain, but also able to go. Do not talk to me today, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises who have more efficient, today, the efficiency of the timing issue is not state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, like the efficiency of The no. deepening international today, state-owned enterprises, private enterprises may both be eliminated, do not talk about growth. how to be eliminated? you at home could not restrain a also can not get out, in addition to a few outside. do not believe that we talk about the actual cases.
evening today, after listening to what my speech, reported that corruption is not it. Tsingtao beer to drink when you think about who is the largest shareholder of Tsingtao beer, mind you must tell me, Qingdao Guo Ziju it? state-owned enterprises. Please note that I am following sentence, the state-owned enterprises, the largest shareholder holding 30% of Guo Ziju, the second largest shareholder is the United States An Kaixi, holding 27%. as long as it sold more than 4% of the H shares, China's Zhu Rongji called the mouth of the two brands, one is the Tsingtao Brewery, one is immediately into the West Lake Longjing foreign-funded enterprises. Xu workers, who wanted to sell the United States, a machinery company, was organized in the. once the U.S. fund to sell XCMG, called Carlyle, they will split or listed you, it will get a lot of profit. may be sold for you a hundred pieces, they are likely a thousand thousand the price you sell the block again. He took the bulk, you get a small head. think of these two cases mean? Tsingtao Brewery is the symbol of the industrial capital into China, XCMG is the meaning of a symbol of financial capital into China. This is the current international situation, they will be your biggest competitor.
you ask an old farmer, what is irrigation, farmers will be it for us, you must first open the gates prior to digging ditches and drains along the water cited the need to water the fields. If asked before he opened the gates do not dig ditches? the farmer scolded you, say you do not know, you do not dig ditches, then open the flood gates will overflow the land, the fertile land is flooded the United States. just talking about industrial capital and financial capital of the background is that internationalization is not dug a trench in the international. industrial capital with a large number of financial capital into China, as floods submerged a couple of days as the U.S., because you forgot to dig ditches. guests here tell me, what is the trenches? is the legal rules of the game
nike linarglide, we did not establish legal rules of the game. Thus, the inevitable result of the end, with the gradual deepening international today, will form the current phenomenon is big bullying the small, strong bullying the weak, through the industrial capital, financial capital siege of Chinese enterprises. this is you in which the international situation, I put together in front of two stories, your life can be better than it? Your days will be more sad, and the situation will only worsen, not improve. If you think this day is so sad, do not worry, next year will be worse. because your investment and business environment has been deteriorating rapidly, and you do You should understand the manufacturing profit rate is very low, 5% of it. With the increasing appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the appreciation of 5% a year, you find that you only meager profits will be swept and empty, so you will be slow slowly bleeding to death, this is also called the investment environment is deteriorating rapidly. Think Do not do investment altogether, and squeeze more money out of stocks and property speculation forget. ye under my theory is inevitable results, due to rapid deterioration of investment environment, forcing the funds you have to handle the formation of virtual money into the property market, stock market, buy a house so nice, do not like the manufacturing industry, a year to earn 5%, the RMB exchange rate also continued to appreciate, with the formation of virtual money, the Chinese economy slowly toward the virtual economy, we do not want to invest.
if I'm talking about is a reality, you can understand why I entered to see the subject feels good laugh, listen to me talk about these external environment, ask you to tell me, how can you do grow, you want to where to grow
Nike Free Run men, you want to do? perhaps you may say, life is more difficult in China, we can go out, we also came to international. I would ask the guests, a business in China which is the real success of international business? tell my name. I'm not saying that export exports, is really enough to form a so-called multinational companies have a pattern? I tell you, almost no one. We do not have large, the general pattern of international, minor things that we can do? such as TCL, like, or the same as Taiwan's BenQ is also to the International Year of .04 I TCL's business conducted on the criticism of its performance is now in decline. but it did internationally. it believes to be using China's cheap labor with foreign brands and technologies internationally. sounds very reasonable, it sounds Basically, what reason is wrong. BenQ is the same, but also hope that China's cheap labor with the use of foreign brands and international technology. BenQ bought Siemens's mobile business, TCL acquired Thomson, after the international side Business crashing fell. BenQ, TCL has the bitter taste of being international, coupled with China's cheap labor and paste the foreign brands to succeed? this look too easy.
local practices in Shanghai told me that China's cheap labor useful? you listen to my lecture go to the Huaihai Road of HM the boutiques look at this year's April 20 opening of the Swedish brand, and then to Nanjing West Road, Hang Lung to see other people is an international brand ZARA, international superstar designer clothes, but also a few hundred pieces. General dozens of pieces of clothing, a few hundred pieces. people selling clothes cheaper than we sell clothes, or international brands, designer, how can you. read two After this you find that cheap labor is itself a misconception. ZARA and HM the two stores, one year two thousand models clothes, updated once a week in the shop, which is why the opening of two stores, almost can be said turned out to buy clothes, the two boutiques to China, should be able to wake-up call to our entrepreneurs. you find that your past thinking, maybe is a problem. your mind is not liberation, talk about growth, is impossible.
I talked about the two Japanese companies, Japan's Nissan called when the crashing fall of 99 years, the other is Sony. I jokingly asked you, I would like to test your idea is not rigid, is not it, and the international standards. How many people use your hands Sony digital camera please raise their hands (not much). Thank you, and now you still use the Sony digital camera to prove your idea is sufficiently rigid. Sony June 22, 2005 fall of almost crashing , a once glorious achievements of the dream generation of Japanese Sony, how to mess with this point? restructuring the companies how to do? Japan's Nissan in 1999, the total global reception of two trillion yen. is more than two trillion yen over the world 174 countries of the GDP. does not lack of funds, lack of technology, Nissan will? If it is not lack of technology could defeat the United States Ford and GM. a no shortage of funds, personnel reorganization of the company how to do. when they found a French were .2005 June 22, when Sony's in trouble, well the beginning of Sony's chairman of the Rising Sun, the Japanese name difficult to back, unlike Lang is very logical, very good back, the name of my brains back in Japan , how speech: June 22, 2005 he relinquished the position of chairman of an Englishman, the media asked him why he did not look Japanese to his successor? He said that Japanese culture does not help to allow the rigid thinking, problem solving . Sony is not lack of funds, not lack of technology, no shortage of talent. The two are not short of capital, talent, technology, the company's restructuring strategy is to emancipate the mind. The chief operating officer, told Green that he come to Shanghai to talk with employees, he urged the Japanese production of all employees from now on, all forget all the past. This is the management of the most famous \important.
your hands what brand of phone? will be to listen to the people of my presentation will use the basic domestic mobile phone, you should use the motorized, Nokia, or Samsung, few people use LG. there are more than three thousand models of domestic mobile phone . three hundred foreign phone models. Are you more than three thousand models do not have a favorite? not a function for you? impossible. why do not you? I point out the mobile phone industry's problems to you understand why the BenQ be a problem.
we first tell a little story, to tell you the data, we do a China market research, market survey, said this: in the end mobile phone market share was 68%, low-end mobile phones The market share of 14%. 18% of high-end mobile phones. So, in the end add up to 82% of the low-end. If in class today, Professor Lang ask you to produce mobile phones, you will cut into the market from which? according to your thinking, you must 82% of the market that should be the most growing market, its growth potential even greater. So you spend a lot of time and money to do research results tell you that the most potential, the most growth in the market should be 82% The low-end phones. This is a reliable data. But I want to tell you that China made mobile phones are basically the same thinking. What thinking? reached from the low end, because it's the market's largest and most potential, the most growth. The result is three thousand mobile phone, and you will not buy all of you. Is to find the most potential market is wrong? I invite all guests to think about this issue. I want to tell you In short
air max retail, we gave birth to the rigidity of the Chinese culture is still in your business thinking on the role played a significant role. Shanghai thinking, roads and Hong Kong, Shanghai, which compared the road is wide? of course, Shanghai. Shanghai so much elevated . you have not found that Hong Kong's roads are narrow, not only narrow, the speed is very fast. Why not Hong Kong Shanghai traffic jam traffic jam? We touched the problem of congestion, the first thought is why, building overhead, building environment Road. to Beijing, for example, the loop more to build more, build Third, Fourth, seven rings, eight rings, built a second round up into the ring to Shanghai, this loop is the minimum efficiency, why do These? rigid thinking. caught in traffic on the widened road, do not expect you to be a change in thinking. did not think Hong Kong is not the road width is not because of traffic congestion because the software to manage.
Today I want to prove a theory to you, growth is the development of enterprises should have, first of all must give up these rigid thinking. your industry in which most of the people I have to be a summary of your ninety eight percent of the industry, the first feature is a traditional industry. The second features, product homogeneity is high, the third feature of technical barriers is not high. In addition to a handful of factories, the majority of plants can be incorporated into these three. how to do? traditional industries, product homogeneity is high, almost no technology barriers, how do? way we think, basically divided into two, the first brand strategy, we must play the brand to break through this, this predicament. Second, the technical barriers is not another job some technological innovation and technological upgrading in order to overcome difficulties . Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, the strategic guiding ideology is essentially two, a brand strategy, a second, independent innovation. brand slightly not least, innovation is not important, very important, the question is how? as long as you do technological innovation, as long as the practice of brand strategy, the following sentence is basically difficult to achieve. our textile industry, garment industry there? our textile industry, which is not a chemical plant machinery. especially Jiangsu and Zhejiang also brought each of them is the \\far behind than China, many factories that time, the mother plant, foot of the sewing machine, have not heard of a brand ZARA, an industry has not lagged behind upgrading the textile industry, people catch on what basis the United States swept the world over. Sweden, HM the same , Why?
I entered and saw someone wearing the Nike sports shoes, we are the first major brand Li Ning of China in 2003 ranked first place before, after the international, as Nike, Adidas step pressed further, Li Ning retreat. why? Nike has brand? course. But I tell you the Nike sports shoes, sportswear, especially sports shoes manufactured in Dongguan, the so-called technology our Chinese manufacturer of sports shoes have, why the same level of technology, you create the people do not buy your shoes, and you have to retreat, why do only buy Nike? Please remember that Nike does not produce, it does a virtual business, all you to produce, to the Vietnamese production, which do not produce, and why it has the brand, you do not? subject to export all this a very interesting results. two words that I said before, that is, business investment in China With the corruption and the international environment is gradually deteriorating. worsening investment environment
Air Jordan 3 (III), the industry of your choice are basically limited potential. you're very difficult to grow, coupled with international realities, a large number of multinational companies into the China, through the industrial capital, financial capital gradually swept through China. Finally, with the exchange rate rise, you slowly bleeding to death, you find that industrial capital and financial capital are like two big bald eagles flying in the sky looking at you at any time, You fly down to eat, you do not make money, it will make money? you do not make money, they can make money, because we in addition to a handful of China's manufacturing industry as Huawei, we are still the majority of China's manufacturing industry \; hard-dollar \production, international company through the integration of industrial chain started to \\the pattern of the future, why are you more sad days, the situation will not improve.
restrain Chinese enterprises are also able to go, the reason is that our thinking is too rigid. including ZARA, HM, BenQ's mobile phone Wait, I want to tell you, in a word, the inertia of our thinking is very rigid, and we encounter the case of A, we must choose E, C is the best and not know the answer, when you see the mobile phone market Mayor of the most growth is the low-end market, your next step will directly cut into the low-end market, so you will fail. so you do not have thirty million mobile phones, reason is rigid thinking. I am speaking in various parts of China, no matter any place to go to China, the total Urumqi to Heilongjiang, to Shandong, Hainan, every entrepreneur asked similar questions I was shocked, they asked, can you tell us that the most promising industry in China which we invest, China Company officials thought the government is rigid, they asked me, can guide us how to play the regional competitive advantage. my answer is very specific, I said that China did not have the potential of an industry, not a province of China is a regional competitive advantage. after about the audience are not happy, that we die and be proud. My answer is, it would go to hell. Today you have to look for potential trades, and its essential meaning is the same as looking like mobile phone market share of 82%, 82 % had no potential, have the potential? once production will fail. you ask me, Professor Lang is not nonsense you, do not we vote in the potential of the industry to do?
we do not have investment potential of the industry, when you Once past that break the traditional thinking, contrarian, you will find a broader way. the advertising industry, for example, the purpose of advertising what you think, if you think the answer must be wrong, are rigid thinking, do you think products must be playing well-known advertising or corporate reputation, such a thought must be wrong. Do not play well-known advertising, but also undermine the reputation? not say so, I tell you that advertising can not achieve both product awareness, or enterprises can play visibility. advertising what purpose, I hope that through this case to say that thinking about the future, the purpose of advertising is playing a kind of spirit. the original brand strategy itself is not wrong, but the spirit behind the brand strategy, what is? ...
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