Reprinted abyss footsteps - concerns of China rep

abyss footsteps -
- worried about China's risk and crisis -
When
Ice -
stock concordance futures, margin trading the news, we are more cared approximately,PULSERA NEGRA CON LOGO XB, is it China's capital mall. This efficacy is inevitable, it will change trends, the corresponding investment tactics and thinking methods, we absence to make adjustments. However, this is not the maximum important publish. If you see above a universal outlook, from the carbon economy to the stock concordance futures, are arranging a road - a road to the crisis of the road. -
the fast rise of Japan and the mysterious decline in my -
fast rise of the panic was that the United States, Japan, why the odd decline? This is the number of secret which was hidden? Japan's happened? The United States do? Can not penetrate them in the bloody game, Japan's seven inches hit the United States, and the challenge from the host back into servile slaves ... ... -
I recently read the books have been, primarily in the proses of foreign scholars, attempting to find one answer. -
answers to these questions, there are many researchers to the country ahead, but these studies preconceived limitations of political inclination, etc., making it academic merit greatly reduced. I also hope to ascertain the chief interests of the game. Shift from the reputation in those black days in Japan, in the end what happened? -
I use the combined read (see -
process of looking for answers, I often feel the word: fear. -
Japan's vantage, China has not. -
the soft underbelly of the Japanese, the Chinese even more. -
Japan's cunning, the Chinese did not. -
such as technology, education, social security, path ... ... more wealthy folk, the Chinese are far fewer than Japan. In diplomacy, Japan's Negotiations in the carbon economy, the Chinese without the commitment of Western capital and technical alms to the case, take the initiative to take liability for supremacy of the interests of Japan is definitely not simply based on the Japanese prefer to live to others to do the face, while he was affordable. -
However, China is Japan's route along every step. Facing not only the backdrop, even the pertinent fathom, also repeat the mistakes of Japan, and, to less and less opportunity of error correction ... ... often meditation of this, troubled. -
error correction capacity and the nation of Japan is a very mighty sense of struggle. Even in the weapons hit the U.S. financial Diukuiqijia days, Japan was still many years to nourish the patent technology has made the world's first civilian technological research and R & D investment in the world; Japan's investment in education has maintained in the GDP, 4.7% (China real GDP, the proportion of investment in public education was 2.4%, equivalent to only Japan, the United States, half); Japanese nationals No significant change in the standard of living ... ... -
This is a
to bite the bullet and slowly adjustment, standby rise of nationality. -
lost to Japan 10 years, academics have many interpretations, of which, the outstanding tenet of the balance sheet recession, are also recognized. In fact, China's decision-making is also affected, began to take countermeasures in order to avoid repeating the mistakes of Japan - by moving down interest analysis method, I am sure that is the case, at least, the logic of the two lines is compatible. -
However, this may be misleading to a dreadful abyss. -
I recently
a small range of the depth of his speech, talked about my concerns. -
balance sheet definition of a recession: when a national wealth price bubble burst, a large number of personal sector (corporate and household) balance sheet, resulting in a location of insolvency, the private sector of economic movement changed from the pursuance of profit maximization to minimize debt, which embody large-scale economic activities, which caused the ongoing decline, known as the balance sheet recession. -
features: -
(1) Most of enterprise revenue will be accustomed to repay, and not for re-investment, with declining demand for bank loans Investment; most of their proceeds for household debt, reduce consumption, consumer credit declined sharply. -
(2) As affairs and households to repay debts as the goal, a small outflow of funds into the banking, leadership to erasure of the credit wheel occurs, even if lower amuse rates, businesses and households do not borrow power. -
(3) in undertakings and households to reduce the balance to a sustainable level before the economy can not retrieve their own growth. -
residence the balance sheet is the only way government spending. If the Chinese accept this theory of high-level, it means, -
China to Japan to lest reiterating faults, in mandate to shirk a poise canvas recession, proceed to strengthen the Government's fiscal centralization (for premonitory tax benefits for capital out of the urgency of lust is the most typical example), increased government spending, which will further worsen China's economy. Because, China is facing recession and the rich world recession in the equilibrium sheet is essentially different. -
First, the state-owned enterprises as the main force, because they are not worried about debt, borrowing power is always strong, not the debt as a target, but investment in re-investment - with Japan the opposed. -
Second, the Government via additional tax revenue and additional ways to heave asset, far more effective in private hands, paired with corruption, a big wastage and other elements, ambition guide an extravagant misuse of asset, and ultimately occasioned a colossal digit of bad debts, triggered the fiscal crisis. -
Third, penniless people and the absence of social security, which manner its aptitude to hedge is quite languid. -
Conclusion: -
If the error to learn the lessons of Japan, could lead China into a financial crisis triggered by bad debts, balance sheet rather than a Japanese-style recession. -
moment, impetuous s growing Chinese savants, mostly those in power, for personal acquire as a starting point of the problem is often superficial, in fact, either the lost ten-year in Japan, the United States The sub-prime crisis, alternatively facing China in the coming real possession crash of the Great Depression as a starting point, there are two most critical factors in the core: inadequate consumption; decision-making errors. -
prices soaring in Japan that year, the stock market soaring, leading to a lot of money was taken out from the real economy, the stream of the virtual economy, and the bubble explode,PULSERA TRANSPARENTE CON BANDERA, making hundreds of millions of asset disappeared. Following this, the buying power of the Great Depression have to be. Japan's bubble explosion, the mean household spending fell for many years, lost 10 years, in adding to rebound in 1999 until 2001, is still falling. Lost 10 years, buyer recession is just 10 years! -
us look at the United States. Increase in housing prices caused by the wealth effect, also fascinated a lot of money into, but these funds from around the world prefer than the United States. However, as the bubble burst, U.S. expense dropped, forward with the economic crisis. -
Clearly, not enough consumption is the most fundamental factor. If you do not increase consumption, there is not out of the crisis. -
horrifying namely that China's bubble is far greater than the year the United States and Japan. -
U.S. home prices from 1996 to 2006, a absolute of up to 80%. -
look at Japan. In the most solemn time of the bubble, that from 1986 to 1990, Japan's average mercantile land prices rose 67.4% in total, the average price of residential land in Japan is 60% of the total increase, or doubling up in Tokyo. When you see these numbers, I very much doubt, because China's land prices rose this year to reach the speed! In the verification, I can not shocked to find that the most serious when the Japanese bubble, the premium increase is far less than our country! -
is such a level, but also in Japan play a character in protection policy is still the case, rapid collection and burst the bubble, and China, in undefended cases, what should the collection of bubble how perilous? 2001 to 2003, the Chinese regional governments in these 3 years the land transmit revenue totaled 910 billion yuan, a year in 2009, China's total land revenue had reached 1.5 trillion yuan! -
I was startled to find that China in many ways, and even inferior details, are wading along the line of the year in Japan. -
Japan in those years, the implementation of the expansionary fiscal policy, but a lot of capital does not flow to the real economy. -
China today is expansionary fiscal policy, a lot of money does not flow to the real economy. 2009 January to September, the entire Chinese society deposits increased 11.75 trillion yuan, while corporate deposits increased to reach 5.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 47.6%. This means that a large number of bank credit borrowing traditions do not form the reality of purchasing power. -
embarrassment of personal chief is more worrying. -
According to the current market way situation, more than 80 industries in the entire society, allowing the state-owned capital into 72 category, to allow foreign capital to enter the 62 species, while allowing private capital to enter only 41. Moreover, the private economy is precisely the impeded areas of tall rates of return! -
with Japan's everywhere prefer their own private capital in contrast, the Chinese prefer the best opportunities for foreign investors are not private enterprises. For example, some cities in order to attract foreign investment, zero premium to foreign investors, accounting for as high as 80% of industrial land, the city will play up the price of residential land to residential land accounted for 20% of 80% of the price to make up for the loss of industrial land ! This is also a source of rising house prices! -
this at the expense of being a gathering to the expense of the public train of attracting foreign investment, and the traitor He Yi? ! -
Why China
4 trillion emancipate plan is implemented, phones for unprecedented low-carbon economy? - The answer is: China has not path out of adjustment,PULSERA BLANCA CON ARGENTINA, and they saw this, another Western strangling conditions are mellow for China. -
Why
automobiles in China are strongly encouraged to develop in the meantime, the United States to develop bio-fuel on one side, while shutting down SUV transferred abroad? - The question is: to reduce reliance on oil, oil for the future to arrange for warfare. This is variant strangling China's conditions. -
... ... -
Yes, just like chess, is moving ahead step by step. Japan in those years, at fewest, still know where the afterward step, the next step ought be to work from here? And we, in the inexplicable complacent in lost time and period another. Way back in 2009, iron mineral amount negotiations in the most fussy moment, a sudden introduction of China's iron and steel, automobile revitalization blueprinting details, making the difficult negotiating partners immediately chance an unprecedented, instantaneous loss of bargaining pieces in China, the resulting loss of Why the presentation of the policy incongruous as a when? I tin not as a long time to obtain out of this pain: Why ranging from compact negotiations after the presentation of the revitalization of planning? In that circumstance, how will China obtain the interest of ah! -
2008 年 6 months, ranking in the international oil prices approach 140 dollars, I accept the CCTV interview, Eastern time and space,Extreme Balance, made it explicit that future prices will fall 50 dollars. March 2009, I began to see high oil prices, and has again stressed that the cheap oil price epoch has passed, more than 30 U.S. dollars, 40 dollars in oil prices will not see it! Oil prices will destroy $ 70 presently, and reach the line 70-80 U.S. dollars (oil prices reached a line for each means opposition the object changes, this point, I have simply mentioned in the book.) Early November 2009, I re-emphasized discourse in Fuzhou, the international oil prices will break through 100 U.S. dollars in 2010, whether drought or torrents in China, the international oil prices will speedily break through 120 U.S. dollars. -
Yes, this is a alley, is a simulation game of chess, this game of chess is a step by step from paradise, we go step by step does not return. Money to provide in the huge market,PULSERA NEGRA CON VENEZUELA, huge accumulated dry lumber, put bombard to the U.S. only, while the monetary history of war that the United States has always been actors in this area. -
Queen
many Chinese experts deem that,PULSERA CAMUFLAJE CON LOGO XB, because of China's supply of sufficient inflation can not happen, some experts told me in the Chapter 7, That China is only inflation expectations, not inflation. -
This is an highly disgraceful self-defeating contention. -
inquire, do not call prices rose 40% inflation? CPI housing prices do not react, does not average that inflation did not happen, this expert was dragged out of pants are still ignorant, as they put his head buried in the soil, or, such as Liu Ling, there is apartment for pants, as the house chilly. 【Note 1】 -
truth, the most frightening is not the easy problem of inflation. -
the most scary, just some of those specialists complacent - China's huge investment in the hereafter is to supply, and supply in the absence of purchasing power for the corresponding case 【will be rotated into a extra the additional of the new steel industry's production capacity reached 200 million tons; cement production capacity will approach 1.87 billion tons, far more than the tangible needs of the 400 currently under construction will join creation capacity production line of 6 million tons; surplus of 600 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, there are 200 million tons under construction ... ... as the premier 15 min of 2009, in 24 manufactures, 19 industries there are assorted levels of excess capacity】. This will outcome in a orthodox sense than a more tough economic manner of inflation, yet likewise in my earlier blog post has been apparently prophesied before: on the an hand, rising commodity prices, production costs, on the other hand is the increased afford , excess capacity, commodity prices do not increase, the formation of imported inflation and deflation among the coexistence of economic fashion. This current economy will be bitter for China in the hereafter. -
exposed the soft underbelly of China's treasures located is like a fat sheep. United States and other adult countries, to pillage, random selection can have a crop target. -
pain of the country, than this! -
Hopefully, China's decision-making is knowing also much, I Yu Lou, who is difficult to understand the intentions of excellent knowledge. -
Hopefully, the United States and other developed countries are not so clever and I surmise that fierce. -
Caomin Worries, Caomin the cry, maybe, it is equitable a fatuous joke. -
on January 11, 2010 -
【Note 1】 Wine Xingnong, constantly ########## at family Happened to be a guest hit, they teased him a few guests. Liu Ling said:
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